Padres' Jackson Merrill Predicted to Have Major Bounce Back, Slug Career-High in Home Runs

The outfielder endured a sophomore slump in 2025.

Sep 13, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a one run home run during the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | David Frerker-Imagn Images

San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill is predicted to have a bounce back 2026 season, slugging a career-high in home runs while regaining his rookie year magic.

The ESPN staff ranked Merrill as the No. 43 best player in the big leagues on their Top 100 list.

"This ranking is testament to the panel's faith that Merrill will bounce back from a bit of a disappointing second season that saw his WAR drop from 4.4 in 2024 to 2.7 in 2025 and his OPS decline from .826 to .774," ESPN's David Schoenfield writes.

"A trio of injuries certainly played into that as he sat out a month because of a hamstring strain, another few weeks because of a concussion and then a couple of more because of a sprained ankle. But Merrill is still just entering his age-23 season, so his superstar potential remains intact. The key to getting there, besides health: improve his seventh percentile chase rate."

As for Merrill's season prediction, Schoenfield has the outfielder slugging at least 30 home runs in 2026.

"Merrill stays healthy and joins Steve Finley (1996) as the only Padres center fielder to hit 30 home runs — and regains his rookie magic with a couple of walk-off blasts," Schoenfield wrote.

This spring, Merrill isn't participating in the World Baseball Classic this month as he's decided to stay behind and remain with the Padres in camp.

“We’re trying to win the World Series with this team. We got a good window right now,” Merrill said. “So, I want to be as best, physically, as I can before the season, rather than ramp it up early and possibly get an injury and miss time like I did last year.”

Merrill endured a bit of a sophomore slump last season, compared to his rookie year where he took the big leagues by storm. The outfielder earned a Silver Slugger award and was named an All-Star at just 21 years old.

In 2024, Merrill hit .292 with 24 home runs, 90 RBIs and 16 steals, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Last year, he hit .264 with 16 home runs, 67 RBIs and an OPS over 50 points lower than his 2024 total.

Based on the ESPN ranking, the expectation is for Merrill to return to his All-Star form this season.

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