Pressure Is Building With Manny Machado Set for Massive Raise In 2027

Before the blockbuster trades and postseason runs, there was just one player willing to try to build something special in San Diego. That player was franchise legend Manny Machado.

Fast forward to today, and Machado’s legacy is cemented. He’s the Padres’ all-time leader in home runs, has represented the city in three All-Star Games and spearheaded multiple postseason appearances.

Although Machado will forever be a hero in San Diego, baseball is still a business - and his legacy is about to become much more expensive. He signed with the Padres in 2019 on a 10-year, $300 million contract, one of the richest deals in baseball at the time. He later agreed to an 11-year, $350 million extension and restructure that keeps him in San Diego through 2033.

BREAKING: Star third baseman Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres are finalizing an 11-year, $350 million contract extension, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Machado helped turn around the franchise. He'll stay as the ascendant Padres seek their first championship.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 26, 2023

As part of the restructured deal, his salary will rise from $25 million in 2026 to nearly $40 million per year for the remainder of the contract. Machado has consistently performed in line with his salary, but a $15 million annual increase will bring larger expectations going forward.

With more money set to hit the books next season, it would be reasonable to expect the Padres to take advantage of their final year of relative flexibility with short-term additions. Instead, this offseason has gone in the opposite direction.

General manager A.J. Preller has been notably quiet, outside of a few key re-signings and the affordable addition of KBO star Sung-Mun Song, not much has been done to improve the roster.

Yu Darvish is set to cost $15 million annually while missing the entire 2026 season, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s extension is fully active and Nick Pivetta’s salary has climbed to $20 million, leaving the current roster increasingly expensive.

For now, the Padres can survive a quieter offseason than usual, but the pressure will shift toward Machado in 2026. If his production slips, his contract could quickly become a significant obstacle for the front office.

Since 2023, Machado has produced 86 home runs with a 119 wRC+ while posting minus-0.7 outs above average defensively. FanGraphs projects him to finish 2026 with a 3.2 WAR, 23 home runs and 84 RBIs. Those are All-Star-caliber numbers and align with his current AAV, but earning nearly $40 million annually will make the bar even higher.

The encouraging sign is that the underlying metrics suggest that Machado is poised for a strong season. According to Statcast, he ranked in the 64th percentile in overall offensive production in 2025, but sat in the 93rd percentile in exit velocity, 81st percentile in barrel rate and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. A reasonable increase in luck could boost his actual output in 2026.

If nothing else, those indicators show Machado hasn’t lost a step physically and should be able to maintain his skill set as his salary increases.

Only time will tell how well Machado’s contract ultimately ages. But with a $15 million raise looming in 2027, limited financial flexibility and multiple roster holes, all eyes will be on Machado's contract.