Rival Exec Sends Harsh Message on Padres' World Series Window

Entering the 2026 season, there aren't many people across the league who are expecting a lot from the San Diego Padres. After a frustrating end to the 2025 season in the playoffs and a somewhat lackluster offseason, San Diego is being viewed in a strange light.

In recent years, the Padres have been seen as a team that could be very competitive in the National League, potentially even pushing the Los Angeles Dodgers. But due to a lack of talent in the rotation, the Padres are being seen as a fringe playoff team at best this season.

The goal for this organization over the last few years has been a World Series, but to this point, the closest they've come is a National League Championship Series in watch they lost in four games. Losing ace Dylan Cease, among other crucial players, hurts this group for 2026, and playing in the loaded NL West could be tough for them to overcome.

The outlook for the Padres entering 2026 isn't as strong as it's been in the past, and the World Series window may be closing. One longtime MLB executive had some harsh words on what to expect from this group moving forward.

“The window is closing, with an aging group and a ton of payroll on the books," the executive said to The Athletic.

While Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are still young, the core group of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Joe Musgrove are on the older side of things. All three players are 33 years old and in the midst of long-term contracts for heavy money on the books.

Machado is in the middle of an 11-year, $350 million contract extension that he signed with the team. The veteran infielder still has eight more years, with seven of those paying him $39 million per season.

Bogaerts is in the midst of an 11-year, $280 million contract that he signed in 2022. Bogaerts also has eight more years on the books, with him being scheduled to earn $25.4 million each season.

Musgrove, who missed all of the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, has two years left of his five-season, $100 million contract. The Padres don't yet know what he'll look like coming off a lost season.

Tatis Jr. is still in the prime of his career at 27 years old, and he is currently on a 14-year, $340 million contract. The now outfielder has nine more years, with his contract being very backloaded in the last few seasons.

As for Merrill, he's on the team-friendliest deal, as the 22-year-old is on the books for the next nine years at $135 million.

San Diego got a little trigger-happy a few years ago when handing out contracts to beef up the roster, and it has now caught up to them.

In recent years, the Padres have seen guys like Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Cease all leave (or be traded in Soto's case) due to financial concerns. Heading into 2026, the Padres do have a solid team, but there are major concerns in the starting rotation.

All in all, the Padres could still surprise everyone like they did last year, and they may still have a say in how the NL West shakes out. But overall, this team has major question marks heading into the season, and that doesn't even include anything off the field, where the Seidler family is preparing a sale of the franchise.

FanGraphs currently projects the Padres to go 79-83 this season, finishing fourth in the NL West. For comparison, the Dodgers are predicted to lead MLB with a record of 96-66.

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