Inside The Padres

MLB Analyst Predicts Padres to Take Down Dodgers in NL West, Make World Series

J.P. Hoornstra|
San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt (8) talks with Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) as play is about to resume after benches cleared in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 19.
San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt (8) talks with Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) as play is about to resume after benches cleared in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on June 19. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers

The San Diego Padres bandwagon is filling up, just in time for a critical series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with first place in the National League West at stake.

Count Fox Sports' Rob Parker among the believers.

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In an interview with MLB Network's Brian Kenny on Thursday, Parker said he thinks the Padres have what it takes to overcome the Dodgers and get all the way to the World Series.

"The Padres should've beat the Dodgers last year and should've gone to the World Series," Parker said. "They choked on a (two) to one lead (in the 2024 National League Division Series). They were better than the Dodgers and they choked. And this year despite everything that went on, I still like the Padres. And then they go out at the trade deadline and load up, and have a tremendous bullpen."

"This team is really good," Parker continued. "If they don't get to the World Series, something is wrong there in San Diego."

Kenny, as is his wont, inserted a boxing analogy.

"Had their opponents down, count was 9, could not score a run for a long time," Kenny said. "But they're on top now. They sensed a little weakness, and a little lethargy in the Dodgers, and they're getting after them."

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Parker is hardly alone in liking the Padres' chances.

"The Padres are playing like attack dogs," Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Friday on Foul Territory. "They're right there. In fact they're ahead of the Dodgers."

"I don't see them folding," Rosenthal added. "Really, they didn't fold last year. They did lose the last two games of (the 2024 NLDS) but they got out-pitched. That's the reason that happened."

As of Friday morning, FanGraphs.com gave the Padres a 36.3 percent chance of winning the NL West, a 61.9 percent chance of clinching a Wild Card berth, and only a 1.8 percent chance of missing the postseason altogether.

The Dodgers are still the favorites, per FanGraphs, with a 63.6 percent chance of winning the NL West and a 35.4 percent chance of making the postseason as a Wild Card.

Percentages mean litle when one game separates four of the six favored NL playoff teams: the Philadelphia Phillies (69-52), Padres (69-52), Chicago Cubs (68-52), and Dodgers (68-53).

But the standings and the odds can change quickly. The Padres hold a one-game lead over the Dodgers as they visit Los Angeles for three games starting Friday. The Dodgers led the division by as many games in June, but now find themselves in second place.

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J.P. Hoornstra
J.P. HOORNSTRA

J.P. Hoornstra is an On SI Contributor. A veteran of 20 years of sports coverage for daily newspapers in California, J.P. covered MLB, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Los Angeles Angels (occasionally of Anaheim) from 2012-23 for the Southern California News Group. His first book, The 50 Greatest Dodgers Games of All-Time, published in 2015. In 2016, he won an Associated Press Sports Editors award for breaking news coverage. He once recorded a keyboard solo on the same album as two of the original Doors.

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