Philadelphia Phillies Missing Out on Re-Signing Reliever Is Best Case Scenario

The Philadelphia Phillies missing out on re-signing this reliever would be the best case scenario for the team.

Oct 8, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Carlos Estevez (53) pitches in the eighth inning against the New York Mets during game three of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies approached the 2024 MLB trade deadline looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder and a reliever to add more depth to the back end of their bullpen.

They did accomplish both goals, getting Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles and Carlos Estevez from the Los Angeles Angels.

Hays spent the majority of his time with the organization on the injured list, and when he was healthy he was forcibly put in an everyday role that he was not meant for.

Estevez had good surface-level numbers after joining the Phillies, but under the hood, there was a drastic decline from the numbers he posted with the Angels to begin the year.

That decline, with 2025 being Estevez's age-32 campaign, makes it clear that the reliever signing elsewhere would be the best-case scenario for Philadelphia.

With Los Angeles, Estevez posted a 2.38 ERA across 34 innings in as many games with 32 strikeouts, a 2.87 FIP, a 0.735 WHIP, and a 177 ERA+. After joining Philadelphia, Estevez pitched to a 2.57 ERA across 21 innings in 20 games with 18 strikeouts, a 3.83 FIP, a 1.190 WHIP, and a 161 ERA+.

The veteran's BB/9 declined as well, from 1.3 to 3.0, his H/9 from 5.3 to 7.7, and his K/9 from 8.5 to 7.7.

Again, the ERA was good, but for relievers, you can not use ERA as a measurement of talent since they pitch in a far smaller sample size than starters.

Under the hood, the regression to the mean took place for Estevez with the Phillies. Before 2024, the reliever carried a 4.47 ERA across 364 1/3 innings in 384 games with 390 strikeouts, a 4.16 FIP, a 1.422 WHIP, and a 109 ERA+. Those also include a BB/9 of 3.7, a H/9 of 9.1, and a K/9 of 9.6.

Estevez is not the pitcher who posted a 2.45 ERA in 2024 and is much closer to the pitcher who posted his career numbers every year prior.

Once again, a player overperformed their abilities in a contract year and has many thinking that they are far better than they actually are.

Many look at Estevez as a closer. While that could certainly be the case on a team fighting to sniff a .500-or-better record, that is far from the case on a team trying to contend for a World Series.