A Popular Projection System is Not Loving the 2026 Phillies

The NL East was a two-team race between the Phillies and Mets throughout most of 2025 but will be more competitive this season if the many Braves who suffered through injury or underperformance rebound even halfway.

At DraftKings, the Mets' over-under is 90.5 wins, the Phillies' is 89.5 and the Braves' is 88.5.

Love for the Braves

Fangraphs' projected standings tell an inverse story with the Braves at 90.5 wins, the Mets at 89.5 and the Phillies at 87.3. Interestingly, their projections have the Phillies as the least likely of the three to win the division, a 22.3% chance. The Braves lead the way at 42.6% to win the NL East, followed by the Mets at 34.4%.

Their projection system also has the Phillies third among the three teams with a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs, with the Braves at 84.1% and the Mets at 79.5%.

Fangraphs' standings projections use two different systems (ZiPS and Steamer) to forecast player performance and how a team's collection of players would fare on a neutral field against a .500 opponent. Obviously, few big-league games fall under that exact criteria but it helps balance out games against winning and losing teams and those at home or on the road.

Atlanta's offseason

The Braves did not have a busy offseason, adding only setup man Robert Suarez, corner outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and utilityman Mauricio Dubon.

Two important players, starter Spencer Schwellenbach and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, are already hurt. Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day injured list this week with right elbow inflammation after missing the final two months last season with a fracture in that elbow. Kim is expected to be out until June after undergoing hand surgery in January.

But Atlanta does have a grouping of players who should be better in 2026.

Expecting a rebound

Ronald Acuña Jr. played only 95 games last season because of knee and Achilles injuries. Austin Riley was limited to 102 with an abdominal strain. Jurickson Profar played 80 because of a PED bust.

Michael Harris II had a .550 OPS in the first half. Ozzie Albies spent most of the year hitting between .220 and .230 with an on-base percentage barely above .300.

Chris Sale missed 10 starts. Spencer Strider missed nine and looked rustier than usual in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

It was a far cry from 2023 when almost half of Atlanta's roster — Acuña, Matt Olson, Riley, Albies, Harris, Marcell Ozuna, Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia, Strider — had a career year at the same time en route to 104 wins.

Phillies catch 'em early

The Phillies were 8-5 against the Braves last season, 7-3 in games started by anyone other than Sale. They certainly benefitted from the lack of Acuña and handled him when they did face him — 6-for-32 (.188) without a home run. They also had a good book on Harris, contributing to his struggles by limiting him to 9-for-41 (.220) with one extra-base hit, no walks and 16 strikeouts.

The Phils will face the Braves six times in April alone and both series will likely come without ace Zack Wheeler, who is behind other pitchers in camp as he builds back up after September surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome. Last season was a struggle for Wheeler in two starts against his hometown Braves but he dominated them his prior five seasons as a Phillie with a 2.07 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 104⅓ innings.