Why Rookie Justin Crawford's Projections Should Make Phillies Fans Optimistic

It's hard to forecast how rookie Justin Crawford's first month will go in the major leagues, much less his first season.

He's a major representative of the variance on this year's Phillies roster. If Crawford and starting pitcher Andrew Painter hit the ground running, if they thrive in their first season with the Phils, the lineup will likely be better than expected and the rotation wouldn't feel the loss of Ranger Suarez as deeply.

Those are big ifs, obviously, because even the most successful prospects experience their share of struggles when transitioning to the most difficult level of professional baseball.

If Crawford can make the adjustment quickly, it would elongate the Phillies' lineup and give them their most dynamic 9-1 combination of the universal DH era. Just think of the havoc he and Trea Turner could create after back-to-back singles ahead of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

Crawford has played a ton in spring training, entering the week tied for the team lead with Otto Kemp with 28 plate appearances. Crawford has gone 6-for-27 (.222) with three doubles, a walk and five strikeouts.

Wasting no time! Our first hit of the spring comes courtesy of Justin Crawford pic.twitter.com/EHLKCRl5kd
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) February 21, 2026

How do the projection systems see the 2026 season playing out for the 22-year-old Crawford? Let's look at three of them:

Steamer

Around since 2012, Steamer is one of two primary projection systems used at Fangraphs. It utilizes past performance and aging trends, and the projections update on a daily basis to account for new data.

Crawford's Steamer projection is a .267/.325/.376 slash-line with 15 doubles, five home runs and 17 stolen bases in 346 plate appearances.

The projected playing time is low, as Crawford is expected to spend the year as the Phillies' everyday centerfielder and has not been mentioned as a platoon candidate after hitting .376 against lefties last season at Triple A.

Obviously, injury could strike at any time, and the Phils could also reassess the platoon component if he doesn't handle same-handed pitching, but Crawford should well exceed 346 plate appearances as a rookie.

Showin' off the rangeeee pic.twitter.com/GuPKaxvHAU
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 7, 2026

ZiPS

The other main projection system found at Fangraphs has been around for more than two decades.

A quick explainer from the MLB.com glossary: ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.

Obviously, Crawford has no past major-league performance to pluck from, but minor-league data is included. ZiPS tends to be among the most accurate at projecting the performance of prospects graduating to the majors.

ZiPS likes Crawford quite a bit better, projecting him to hit .286/.337/.390 with 21 doubles, four triples, seven home runs and 29 steals in 529 plate appearances.

That would certainly be an impressive rookie year for Crawford. The only Phillies last season to hit better than .286 were NL batting champ Turner (.304) and Alec Bohm (.287).

And the projected .337 OBP for Crawford would be far higher than the league average last season of .315. Really, that's the most important goal for Crawford in 2026: get on base. He doesn't need to crack double-digit home runs, he doesn't need to hit 35 doubles — though both would be great. He just needs to set the table. If he does, the rest should take care of itself.

The ZiPS formula ranks Crawford as the 23rd-best outfield prospect in baseball entering 2026. Here is what the system's creator, Dan Szymborski, wrote about him:

"Justin Crawford is probably more interesting than his ranking is; his 20th-percentile projection is quite low, but he does have a high chance, relative to his ranking, of being a real contributor in the majors."

FGDC

Fangraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer that incorporate more realistic, contextual forecasts of playing time.

These have Crawford hitting .276/.331/.383 with 20 doubles, seven homers and 25 stolen bases in 476 plate appearances.

So, to recap, these are three of the primary projections for Crawford in 2026:

Steamer — .267/.325/.376 in 92 games

ZiPS — .286/.337/.390 in 119 games

FGDC — .276/.331/.383 in 110 games

All three OBPs would be acceptable, and hitting better than .275 would be no small feat for a first-year player. Last season, the only MLB rookies who played at least 100 games and hit at least .275 were Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz of the A's, and Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson of the Rays.