Phillies Faced With Crucial Roster Decision Ahead of Looming NLDS Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies' outfield has been a consistent area of discussion among the fanbase, as production throughout the outfield remains uncertain.

Entering the 2025 MLB season after a disappointing early exit to the New York Mets in the 2024 NLDS, many clamored for the Phillies' President of Baseball Operations to make a splash addition to the offense. With most of the team's positions filled, bolstering the outfield seemed like the smartest and most viable choice.

No such addition was made, however, as signing veteran Max Kepler to a one-year, $10 million deal was the only acquisition Dombrowski made in that regard. Fast forward to October, and the offensive development of left fielder Brandon Marsh has certainly quieted some concerns, with the introduction of former Minnesota Twins center fielder Harrison Bader at the trade deadline proving to be well worth the price of two prospects.

That leaves right field, currently occupied by the aforementioned Kepler and 13-year veteran Nick Castellanos, who's in the fourth year of the five-year, $100 million contract he signed in 2022. Castellanos yet again struggled to match the expectations of his lofty price tag, posting a subpar .694 OPS in 147 games.

The season statistics are of similar quality for Kepler, with his final OPS sitting at just .691. His season has been the tale of two halves, however, as his poor first half has been offset by a major uptick in production since the insertion of Bader into the lineup.

Without a second thought, Max Kepler should see the majority of the playing time in right field against RHP this October.

Defensively, it's a no-brainer, and since the trade deadline:

33 G, .250/.309/.482, 7 HR, .377 xwOBA, 116 wRC+

He's been... really good?
— Alex Carr (@AlexCarrMLB) September 29, 2025

The case for Kepler grows when considering both players' defensive metrics. Despite his middling 37th percentile Fielding Run Value according to Baseball Savant, Castellanos ranks in the 1st percentile and has long been a defensive liability.

While their offensive numbers look alike, there are some important distinctions that could influence future decisions. Strikeouts and an inability to force walks have long been an issue for the Phillies' roster, a common catalyst when examining their recent playoff collapses.

Kepler's whiff rate and strikeout rate both sit above the 50th percentile, whereas Castellanos sits in the 16th and 44th percentile respectively. The disparity extends to each hitter's chase rates, as Castellanos has among the worst plate discipline in baseball, with Kepler again middle of the pack. One main aspect where the ratio is flipped, however, is the difference in doubles, with Castellanos' 30 dwarfing Kepler's 19.

Outside of Kepler and Castellanos, just one wildcard had been discussed as an option in recent weeks. With the offensive prowess of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner, among others, presumably enough to provide adequate production, some had speculated that former top prospect Johan Rojas could be a late addition to the postseason roster. His lack of offensive production is at least somewhat offset by his combination of elite defense and top-end speed, an archetype that has historically been quite effective in the playoffs.

That possibility has been entirely shut down, at least for the time being. Early Tuesday morning, MLB.com Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki reported that Rojas is continuing to nurse a quadriceps injury, further delaying a potential return.

Dave Dombrowski said Johan Rojas is still recovering from a quad injury. He won’t be ready for the NLDS, but they could be eligible for the NLCS.

He had been a potential bench candidate because of his speed and defense.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) September 30, 2025

How Do Phillies Move Forward?

The most likely option come Saturday, October 4th, is a platoon where Castellanos faces strictly southpaws and Kepler gets at-bats against righties. Neither has performed exceptionally well against either handedness in 2025, but in the modern MLB, analytics always rule.

Unless either player goes on an unexpected hot streak to begin the playoffs, the best option for manager Rob Thomson might be to simply ride the hot hand. Neither bat is anticipated to be a driving factor on what has been one of the best offenses in baseball, and the widespread hope is that the team's stars will live up to expectations and propel the Phillies into another deep postseason run.

Nevertheless, decisions will have to be made regarding Philadelphia's right field situation, and star power struggling is not an unfamiliar occurrence to the club. Maximizing production from one of their worst offensive areas is essential to optimizing the balance and effectiveness of the lineup, and how Thomson chooses to move forward could have a substantial impact on how far the Phillies advance in the playoffs.

How Do Phillies Move Forward?

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