Is There Any Reason to be Optimistic About the Phillies?

2017 was the last time the Philadelphia Phillies started a season 12-16 or worse. Considering how that season ended, it understandable to be worried about this ball club.

Obviously, the 2022 Phillies have far greater talent on the roster than they had in 2017. That team saw Nick Pivetta make 26 starts for a 6.02 ERA and Michael Saunders signed to an $8 million free agent deal only to be released in June.

That contract was the Phillies' biggest signing of the offseason. The 2022 team had two deals alone that eclipsed Saunders' deal ten fold.

Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos have been two of the Phillies' brightest spots since their season began. The duo have OPS+'s of 130 and 144 respectively, both of which decimate their career averages.

Though Schwarber still has a low batting average, he's slashed .270/.378/.603 since April 17. Castellanos has cooled slightly since the season's initial weeks, but given the status of MLB's baseballs in 2022, the fact that his season OPS is .020 above his career OPS is nothing short of incredible.

Schwarber and Bohm are not alone in outstanding offensive production from the Phillies. Alec Bohm has silenced doubters at the plate since the season's first games. His .312 AVG is 17th in MLB, but his .358 xBA is best in baseball.

Bohm is hitting the ball harder and striking out less than he ever has in his entire career. While his 2020 rookie campaign required a huge amount of batted ball luck, .410 BABIP, while 2022 has seen him hit for a very reasonable .338 BABIP.

In fact, the Phillies' lineup as a whole has hit the ball very well. They are second in the NL in SLG at .405 and hit the ball harder 95mph 43.4% of the time. That's 5.1% better than league average.

However, they're not scoring runs at the rate they should. With runners in scoring position, they've slashed .261/.305/.372. With runners on third and less than two out, they've performed even worse, slashing .256/.245/.308.

Neither of these slashlines are sustainable and given the talent on the squad, they should revert to the mean sooner rather than later.

The Phillies bullpen has been brilliant on the surface too. Of the five Phillies relievers who have appeared in the most games—Corey Knebel, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeurys Familia, José Alvarado and Brad Hand—none have an ERA higher than 3.48. Taking Familia out of the equation, none have a FIP higher than 2.39.

For Alvarado, who's struggled with walks his entire career, his 1.46 FIP may be an indication that he's turned a corner. This season, he's issued a free pass to only three batters out of 37 for 8.1%. That's a far more sustainable rate his his career average of 14.0%.

While the rotation has been inconsistent through the season's first month, Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson have solidified themselves as dependable starters. Indeed, Nola's xERA of 2.61 would top even his 2018 season. If Nola can cut down on home runs, it might be time for him to reclaim his "ace" status.

Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin and Ranger Suárez have flashed top of the rotation potential as well. Unfortunately, it seems the two Zac[h/k]s may be out for the short term. Both have hit the COVID list.

But Wheeler showed some leftover form from 2021 when he pitched 7.2 innings of 78-pitch scoreless ball on Wednesday and Eflin's FIP currently rests at 2.86.

Suárez hasn't displayed the ability he presented late in 2021 this year, but he has advertised himself to be a dependable innings eater at very worst—a more efficient Jamie Moyer, if you will.

With all of that, it would seem the Phillies have very few holes, and on the surface, that remains true. The first 20 players on the Phillies roster are some of the best in MLB, but their depth problems have held them back so far in 2022.

Nevertheless, despite their early troubles, the Phillies have maintained a run differential of exactly zero. The Phillies biggest problem has been losing the close games. If they can turn their luck around soon and start winning ballgames, Philadelphia could find itself in a Wild Card spot by the end of May with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball.

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