How Can the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies Succeed Where the 2011 Team Failed?

Upon looking at the matchups for the 2011 NLDS, it's hard to see how the Philadelphia Phillies possibly could have lost.

Game 1 saw Philadelphia send Roy Halladay to the mound facing Kyle Lohse. Though 2011 was one of his better seasons during a late-career revival, Lohse was thoroughly outclassed by Halladay.

The Phillies lost Game 2 when Cliff Lee blew a four-run lead to the St. Louis Cardinals entirely on his own. Despite valiant relief efforts from Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo, Vance Worley and Ryan Madson, the Phillies were unable to claw their way back from a one-run deficit.

Cole Hamels outdueled Jaime Garcia in Game 3. Despite some late inning highwire acts from Madson and the Phillies bullpen, Garcia was not equal to the task of handling the Phillies' lineup.

Thus, it felt like the Phillies secured the series. They had to win one game with Roy Oswalt going up against Edwin Jackson, or a winner-take-all Game 5 with future Hall of Famer Halladay on the mound.

Even though Jackson defeated Oswalt in Game 4, who was Chris Carpenter compared to Halladay? Even at Carpenter's best, he shouldn't have been capable of beating the best pitcher in baseball.

But of course, we all know how the story ends: with Ryan Howard hunched over on the ground in pain as St. Louis celebrated on the field around him.

Though that Phillies team was known for their starting pitching, their ERA that series was 3.71, good, but not great, especially not for what may have been the best starting staff ever assembled.

The Phillies' offense failed them too. For the series they slashed .226/.269/.335. Though that team were never juggernauts offensively, especially when compared to the 2007 through 2009 Phillies teams, they weren't that bad, ranking seventh in the National League in runs scored with a .717 OPS.

The 2022 Phillies actually have a better offense comparatively. They ranked fifth in the NL in runs scored with a .739 OPS.

The 2022 Phillies' bullpen may be superior too. Though they weren't the culprit for the series loss in 2011, a poor back-end showing will make a difference in 2022.

The 2011 Phillies sported Ryan Madson, Kyle Kendrick, Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo at the back of their bullpen. None had an ERA higher than 3.63, but none stood out either. Madson had a nice season, pitching 60.2 innings for a 2.37 ERA, but he was never elite.

Brad Lidge made a late-season cameo too, for 19.1 innings and a 1.40 ERA, making three appearances in that playoff series, though his best years were behind him.

While, the current iteration of the Phillies' 'pen has faltered of late, especially Seranthony Domínguez, their makeup is far superior overall. With the recent emergences of shutdown relievers Zach Eflin and José Alvarado, it might be fair to give the edge in relief core to the 2022 Phillies.

The 2011 team had no such dominant presence like Alvarado; few teams ever have.

But the deciding factor in the 2022 NLWCS looks to be starting pitching once again. It doomed the Phillies in 2011, but the matchups are favorable this time around.

In Game 1, Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound opposed by José Quintana who had the best season of his career. Despite that, analytics say that Quintana perhaps benefitted from positive luck.

His xERA was 3.86 and he was in the bottom third of all MLB pitchers in xBA, K%, curve spin and whiff%. The Cardinals defense behind him aided his efforts, but in a small sample size, defense really can't be relied upon.

The Game 2 matchup is also heavily in the Phillies' favor. Though starters Aaron Nola and Miles Mikolas have comparable ERAs, 3.25 and 3.29 respectively, Nola has far-superior peripherals.

Leading all MLB pitchers in K/BB at 8.10, his FIP is 2.58 where Mikolas' is 3.87.

The Phillies plan to send Ranger Suárez to the mound in Game 3, if necessary. Though the Cardinals haven't announced their starter yet, this matchup will undoubtedly fall in the Cardinals' favor. They have crushed left-handed pitching in 2022.

Inside the Phillies already took a more in-depth look at the pitching matchups for this upcoming series, but one thing is certain.

The Phillies' must out-duel the top of the Cardinals' rotation. They failed in that area in 2011. It is Philadelphia's biggest advantage coming into this series, and it is there that they must capitalize.

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