Inside The Phillies

Aaron Nola Looking to Continue Trend of Strong Performances in August

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola tends to be at his very best in the dog days of summer.
© Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

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Much has been made, over the years, of Aaron Nola's struggles in September. It's true that the right-hander has run into his fair share of trouble in the final month of the regular season. 

For as much as he has stumbled in September, however, Nola has dominated in the month of August. By many metrics, the hottest month of the year is when he's at his very best.

August is the only month of Nola's career in which he has an ERA below 3.00 – it sits at an impressive 2.93 in 205.2 innings pitched. He has his lowest opponents batting average and slugging percentage in August too.

After his start Sunday afternoon, Nola will have more innings pitched in August than any other month. Barring a disastrous appearance, it will still be his month with the fewest hits and home runs allowed.

In particular, Nola has succeeded in August by preventing long balls. While many consider the dog days of summer to be "hittin' season," for Nola it's the exact opposite. He has allowed just 0.74 HR/9 in the month. Of 126 pitchers with at least 100 IP in August since Nola's debut, that ranks sixth. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have been hot lately, winning nine of their last ten. That being so, they still find themselves in a close race for playoff berth. They are just one game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the final Wild Card spot.

In order to stay in the hunt, Philadelphia has to keep winning. In order to keep winning, they will be counting on their starters to keep dealing. In order for their starters to keep dealing, Nola has to lead the pack.

So, as the stretch run begins, the Phillies will be relying heavily on Nola. They'll need him to give the club a real chance to win every time he takes the mound. With his track record in August and the way he's pitched this year, Nola should be up to the task.

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Leo Morgenstern
LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.