Astros Overtake Mariners as Division Favorite, Texas Rangers Sit Third

On a rare night lately when all three American League West hopefuls won, the Houston Astros emerged as the winner.

Well, when it comes to division title odds.

Despite still sitting a game back of the Seattle Mariners going into Tuesday, the defending champs edged ahead as the AL West favorite, according to FanGraphs. Houston (75-58) now has a 41.8% chance of claiming the division title.

The red-hot Mariners (75-56) are still a good bet at 40.1% to win the West. The Texas Rangers (74-57) make up the remaining 18.1%.

The Rangers, Astros and Mariners all won Monday – something that also took place Saturday but hadn’t happened before that since Aug. 15.

Texas is only 2-9 in its last 11 games. Houston is 5-6 over that same span. Seattle has taken full advantage of the struggles by the Silver Boot rivals, going 12-1 since Aug. 15 to surge into first place.

As for postseason probabilities, all three are in good shape. The Astros and Mariners are virtual shoe-ins at the point, with 88.6% and 86.5% odds, respectively. The Rangers are at 67.6%, which is solid considering the Wild Card possibilities.

With three Wild Cards up for grabs, Texas easily has the third-best likelihood. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are battling for the AL East crown and, regardless of the winner, both have better than 99% odds of making the playoffs. So they’ll supply one Wild Card team.

As mentioned early, Houston or Seattle are considered the best shot for another spot. The Rangers follow, with the Toronto Blue Jays (49.4%) as the next best playoff candidate. After that, no club has even a 10% chance.

All three West contenders are in action Tuesday night – Texas (New York Mets), Houston (Boston Red Sox) and Seattle (Oakland Athletics).

You can follow Art Garcia on Twitter @ArtGarcia92.

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