MLB Writers Worried About Former Red Sox Ace's Diminishing Velocity

Is a former Boston Red Sox World Series champion pitcher showing signs of rapid decline to begin 2025?

In the world of sports media, it seems like it’s never too early to put out “panic meter” or “slump watch” think pieces, and that’s just what two leading baseball writers did in the past week, with 2024 National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale ominously appearing in both articles.

First came Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller’s piece on Saturday entitled, “MLB Panic Meter on These 7 Ice-cold Players Early in 2025”. In the piece, Miller noted that the eight-time All-Star Sale is struggling with velocity to start the year.

“It has mostly been the four seamer that has betrayed Sale, with opponents batting 9-for-17 (.529 AVG) against it, compared to 10-for-45 (.222 AVG) against the rest of his arsenal," Miller wrote.

"What is more than a little concerning, however, is the velocity on that fastball. In April 2024, Sale's four-seamer came in at an average 94.7 MPH. And after sitting at 94.2 MPH in his first start of this season, he was at 93.1 MPH in his second start and 92.7 MPH in the most recent one.”

“Keep an eye on that radar gun for Sale's next start against Tampa Bay. If he's comfortably in the 94 MPH vicinity, this panic meter drops to almost nil. But if he ends up below 93 again, early worries will turn into full-blown panic attacks.”

Sale pitched on the Sunday following Miller’s article and saw an uptick in velocity. But that didn’t stop Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer from including Sale in Tuesday’s “MLB Slump Watch for These Struggling Hitters and Pitchers”, in which Rymer wondered aloud whether last year’s Cy Young season was (gasp) an outlier for Sale.

“April does tend to be Chris Sale's worst month, and it bears noting that he had a shaky start to 2024 before going on to win the NL Cy Young Award,” Rymer wrote.

“This isn't to say there aren't real warning signs at work. His average fastball is down 0.7 mph from last season and getting demolished to the tune of a .524 average and .762 slugging percentage. This sounds bad, and indeed feels ominous on account of Sale's age and history. He's 36 years old and his brilliant 2024 season is a major outlier for his career dating back to 2019.”

“On the plus side, he got up to 96.2 mph with his average fastball on Sunday and missing bats hasn't been an issue in any of his four starts. In all, his 30.3 whiff rate is in the 75th percentile. … His 6.63 ERA should be coming down soon.”

Sale is 0-2 through four starts. The former Red Sox lefty is scheduled to make his fifth start of the season on Saturday at home versus the Minnesota Twins.

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