Red Sox 7-Time All-Star Gets Predicted Trade Probability From MLB Insider

What are the chances this fireballer changes uniforms?

Apr 20, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Fans line the field in front of the Green Monster as the Chicago White Sox warm up before a game at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Major League Baseball season is half-over, and the Boston Red Sox are a sub-.500 team.

Currently mired in a four-game streak of excruciating losses, the Red Sox's season has been an endless loop of frustration. They're 40-41, but they could realistically be at least 50-31 if their starting pitching was league average and if they turned routine ground balls into outs.

One player who has been brilliant, however, is closer Aroldis Chapman. In 36 appearances, he owns a 1.36 ERA and has compiled 1.8 bWAR, more than he managed from 2022 to 2024 combined (a span in which he played for four separate teams).

The 37-year-old is on a one-year contract, which means the Red Sox would lose out on a major opportunity by hanging on to him at the trade deadline. Boston signed him with no plans of making such a move, but has their mediocrity made them reconsider?

On Tuesday, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan attempted to provide an update on that subject. With five weeks to go before the Jul. 31 deadline, McDaniel and Passan projected that Chapman currently has a 35 percent chance of getting traded.

"You have probably heard this story before, but Chapman is left-handed and his superpower is that he throws really hard (averages just under 100 mph) and throws that heater a lot (over 75% of the time). He's 37 years old, and he's still dominant," the insiders wrote.

Chapman struck out the side on Tuesday night in his inning against the Los Angeles Angels, but he also walked a batter, which broke a streak of nine straight appearances without a free pass. That's been the most impressive thing about the seven-time All-Star: in year 16 in the big leagues, he's got his walk rate at a career-low of 7.9 percent.

Combine that fact with his 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 307 ERA+, and Chapman would be the most coveted relief pitcher on the market by far.

Trading him would deal a massive hit to the Red Sox's fleeting playoff chances, but keeping him and missing the playoffs anyway would be the worst-case scenario.

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