Red Sox In Peril? Updated Playoff Odds, Magic Number With 9 Games To Go

Spoiler: it's getting scary

Sep 18, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10) hits a home run against the Athletics in the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

It's natural for fans of any Major League Baseball team to panic at this time of year, but the reality is that many of the teams in playoff position have nothing to worry about.

The Boston Red Sox, however, are not so fortunate.

After a 5-3 loss in their series finale against the Athletics, the Red Sox saw their grip on a playoff spot loosen once again. At 83-70, they lead the 81-71 Cleveland Guardians by just 1 1/2 games in the wild card picture with a week and a half to go.

Red Sox's updated playoff odds, magic number

Aug 24, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) reacts after striking out during the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images

The following could be taken as either good or bad news; it's a litmus test of whether you're an optimistic or pessimistic Red Sox fan.

Entering play on Friday, the Red Sox's odds of making the playoffs were 83.4%, according to Fangraphs. Cleveland's odds were 25.0%. Boston has nine games to play, Cleveland 10, and the Red Sox, thankfully, own the tiebreaker.

That makes the Red Sox's magic number to clinch a playoff spot eight. The Texas Rangers are also hovering on the edge of the picture, having lost four straight, and if Cleveland were to go on a sudden losing streak, Boston's magic number to eliminate Texas would be six.

Boston's playoff odds were 98.2% at the conclusion of play on Sept. 2, the night Roman Anthony got hurt in a comeback win over the Guardians.

Some fans will gravitate toward the notion that it doesn't matter if the Red Sox miss the playoffs, given the state of the roster, if they were destined to get quickly booted in the Wild Card Series. That notion could not be more misguided.

For one, it would be folly to count any team out in a three-game series, especially when Garrett Crochet is slated to pitch the first game. But even if Boston were to wash out in two games, the difference between entering the offseason on the tail of a playoff appearance versus a September collapse would be monumental.

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