Breakdown of the Week: How Jarren Duran Lost His Way

This article was originally published as part of Verducci’s View, a new weekly baseball newsletter from Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci. Every Monday, Tom empties out his notebook over email and covers MLB’s hottest topics, provides in-depth analysis through both text and video breakdowns, looks forward to what’s worth watching during the week and more. If you want to be featured in his new mailbag, please email newsletters@si.com with any questions about MLB or his decades in the sport.

Just two years ago, Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran was an All-Star who led the American League in doubles and triples and finished eighth in MVP voting. That player is gone. Now he shows up on this list:

Worst OPS by Qualified Red Sox Outfielder, Since 1920

Player	Year	OPS
Jarren Duran	2026	.609
Darren Lewis	1999	.620
Tommy Harper	1974	.630
Tom Oliver	1932	.632

The Red Sox did him no favors this year by not clearing a logjam of similar outfielders that led to a slow start amid sporadic playing time. Then they fired the hitting coaches along with manager Alex Cora.

But Duran, who turns 30 in September, has lost his way as a hitter. Interim manager Chad Tracy says Duran is “caught in between,” code for a hitter who is late on fastballs and early on breaking and off-speed pitches.

Duran relies on athleticism to hit a baseball the way a young Bellinger did. With excellent bat speed, Duran found ways to get his barrel to the baseball even though the mechanics of his swing included big movements and extreme effort. That skill-over-technique methodology doesn’t work so well in today’s game.

Two years doesn’t seem a long time ago, but pitching is evolving incredibly fast. Compare how Duran was pitched in 2024 to how he has been pitched this year:

Year	Fastballs Seen (Not Including Cutters)	Avg. FB Velocity	Breaking & Off-Speed Seen	Batting Average
2024	50.6%	93.9	39.7%	.252
2026	46.3%	94.3	45.6%	.156

Duran is seeing fewer fastballs, increased velocity and a boatload more of non-fastballs. And he is struggling mightily against the increase in spin and off-speed pitches:

Worst BA vs. Non-Fastballs (Min. 500 Non-Fastball)

Player	Batting Average
1. Dansby Swanson, Cubs	.098
2. Manny Machado, Padres	.132
3. Brent Baty, Mets	.148
4. Salvador Perez, Royals	.155
5. Jarren Duran, Red Sox	.156

In watching film of Duran, I was struck by how often he changes his approach at the plate. His huge leg kick comes and goes. His hands are high and then they are low. He waggles the bat in the air, and he bounces it on his shoulders. Throughout the swing changes he hits with a lot of head movement, which means his eyes are moving as he is tracking the pitch, which contributes to his trouble with pitch recognition and non-fastballs. What does a struggling hitter look like? Someone without a consistent approach, which you can see in the video near the top of this article.

Duran might benefit from a change of scenery. His trade value may have plummeted, but he is a good buy-low candidate for a contender.

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