Could Red Sox Trade $13M Starter Without Paying Down Contract?

The Boston Red Sox may not have "too many" starting pitchers in a vacuum, but they certainly have enough that they can afford to offload at least one.

If the season started on Saturday, the Red Sox could line up Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo in a rotation that would rival any in the entire sport. But beyond those five, they also have standout rookies Connelly Early and Payton Tolle, plus two pitchers returning from the injured list, Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval.

Sandoval is truly the forgotten man in Boston, as he came over last winter on a two-year, $18.25 million contract while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will make $12.75 million this season, and he's supposed to be ready to ramp up starting on day one of the spring as any healthy pitcher would.

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Would any team take on most or all of Sandoval's money?

The question, and it's one the Red Sox may well be asking opposing front offices, is this: Would any pitching-needy team out there at the moment simply allow the Red Sox to salary-dump Sandoval on them? What is his value on the open market at this point?

Looking at Sandoval's past performance, the 2022 season sticks out like a sore thumb. He posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.07 FIP in 27 starts that year, and if that's what the Red Sox thought he would be this year, they wouldn't dream of getting rid of him.

Sandoval probably also isn't as bad as his 5.08 pre-injury ERA in 2024 suggested, either, but his 4.11 ERA in 28 starts in 2023 was just above his career average of 4.01. So if we assume he's about a two-WAR starter over the course of a full season, he's probably worth right around the $10-15 million range, as his contract would suggest.

There are a lot of teams who aren't as lucky as the Red Sox in terms of starting pitching depth. The New York Mets are just one potential example of a team with designs on contending this year that could really use a solid No. 4 or 5 starter with an established big-league track record.

Meanwhile, Boston projects to be roughly $1 million to $6 million over the second luxury tax threshold at the moment, and they want to add another bat, most likely via trade. It's highly unlikely that they'll go another $15 million up into the highest luxury tax threshold.

If the Red Sox are going to make a rotation trade, don't be surprised if it's getting rid of as much of Sandoval's money as possible, potentially even the whole deal.

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