Jarren Duran Gets Estimated Trade Likelihood From Red Sox Insider

How good (or bad) are the odds the Sox move him?

Sep 9, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) smiles after getting hit by a pitch during the ninth inning against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

To begin the offseason, many Boston Red Sox fans and pundits seemed to accept Jarren Duran being traded as a fait accompli.

Entering his age-29 season with three years of team control remaining, however, Duran is still quite a valuable asset. The Red Sox seem to have found it difficult to get the value back for him that they feel he warrants, and that may have something to do with opposing teams sensng Boston is overly eager to trade from its outfield surplus.

The Red Sox missing out on Alex Bregman last weekend and subsequently agreeing to terms with starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has re-started the Duran trade rumor cycle. But we've been through that cycle a lot, so it's hard to immediately parse where things currently stand.

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Duran trade at 50-50 odds?

On Friday, Red Sox insider Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic estimated that Duran had exactly a 50-50 chance of being traded, taking into account the obvious need for a big infield bat, but also the fact that the Red Sox had yet to find an offer to their liking.

"Duran seems the likeliest to be traded, given his $7.7 million salary for 2026 and the fact he’s the oldest of the group while still possessing tools such as speed and power that teams covet," McCaffrey wrote. "Earlier in the offseason, I would have said a 75 percent chance Duran is on the Opening Day roster; now I’m thinking it’s closer to a 50 percent chance."

It's worth a reminder that Duran is a very, very good ballplayer. He was by far the best player on the team two seasons ago, and even if Boston has three other good outfielders, it's not easy to replace even the five bWAR worth of production he gave them this past season.

The value proposition of trading him for, say, Isaac Paredes is heavily tilted in the Houston Astros' favor. If the Red Sox are indeed going to move Duran, they have to be sure they're bringing back close to the same amount of WAR he projects to bring out the door.

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