Red Sox Facing Tough $22 Million Decision On All-Star Starting Pitcher

Should the offer be tendered?

Sep 20, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; A detail view of Boston Red Sox hats and gloves at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-Imagn Images | Kim Klement-Imagn Images

Qualifying offers have become an interesting wrinkle in many teams' offseason planning processes.

The qualifying offer, in practice, is a way for teams to collect draft compensation for losing star players to free agency. Each player can be tendered one just once in their career, and if they accept, they get a one-year deal to return to their old team, at a fixed price that rises slightly year over year.

This season, the qualifying offer is worth $22 million, and the Boston Red Sox have just one player it would make sense to give one to: starting pitcher Lucas Giolito. Unfortunately, it's anything but a cut and dry decision.

Lucas Giolito qualifying offer could come down to health

Sep 17, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) pitches against the Athletics during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Giolito, 31, was an integral part of the Red Sox's rotation this year, pitching to a 3.41 ERA and a 10-4 record in 26 starts. But his elbow got injured and he was left off the postseason roster, which could create questions for teams thinking about signing him in free agency.

If Giolito walks away from his portion of the $19 million mutual option he and the Red Sox share for next season, MLB.com insider Ian Browne believes the Red Sox will also tender him the QO... if they truly believe he is healthy, and his injury isn't a long-term concern.

"I think the decision on Giolito will depend on if the Sox feel he is healthy," Borwne wrote in a recent column. "If so, I believe they will extend him a QO and then leave the decision in his hands."

Only one player accepted a qualifying offer last season, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Martinez, out of 13 to whom the offers were extended. That included Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta, who wound up signing with the San Diego Padres.

Pivetta's numbers were worse than Giolito's in their walk years, but the former was healthy, and projected to be a lot better based on strikeouts if he could ever minimize his home run problem (which he did to great effect in a pitcher's park in San Diego).

But it does help the Red Sox to have the mutual option up first, because if Giolito rejects that option, it's fairly telling that he'd also reject $3 million more -- clearing the path for the Red Sox to part ways with Giolito and collect draft compensation, if that's their prerogative.

More MLB: Red Sox Trade Idea Lands Astros' World Series Champion, Gold Glover