Red Sox Insider Reveals Likely Trade Cost For Pirates' $55.7M All-Star

The Boston Red Sox need starting pitching now and the need is only likely to grow more apparent in the weeks to come.

Ace Garrett Crochet will exceed his career-high in innings pitched next week. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have shown signs of mild fatigue after the All-Star break as well, and the rest of Boston's potential starters (i.e. Walker Buehler) have not proven trustworthy this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller has been an oft-discussed trade candidate for the Red Sox ahead of Thursday's deadline. He's got an All-Star appearance to his name (2023), but more importantly, he eats innings, and is under contract for three more years after this one.

Starters like that don't come cheap, though. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic estimated on Friday that for the Red Sox to land Keller, they'd have to give up 19-year-old top infield prospect Franklin Arias and 22-year-old top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia.

"In Keller, the Red Sox would acquire a dependable and controllable starter," McCaffrey wrote in justification of the high price tag.

"He’s under team control through 2028, with $55.7 million remaining on the final three seasons of a five-year deal. That’s an affordable salary for a solid starting pitcher, especially one who hasn’t posted an ERA north of 4.25 in the past four years, and the Red Sox have plenty of payroll flexibility following the Devers deal."

In response to McCaffrey's proposal, former general manager turned baseball insider Jim Bowden guessed that the Pirates might not be interested in Arias due to his age and job insecurity in the front office, but agreed it was ultimately a fair cost.

"I think this is a fair trade proposal for both sides. It’s a deal that would take effect immediately for the Red Sox, putting them in a significantly stronger position to make the playoffs," wrote Bowden.

"If I were Pittsburgh, I’d ask for Kristian Campbell and Garcia, or Duran, straight up for Keller. If Pirates GM Ben Cherington had long-term job security, this trade would probably work for everyone."

Arias and Garcia don't necessarily have a clear path to playing time in Boston, but that doesn't mean it would be painless to give them up. Either could become an impact big-leaguer, and based on Keller's low strikeout rate this year, there's no guarantee the Red Sox get a number-two or even number-three starter for 3 1/2 years.

But these are the moves Boston has to make if it wants to push for the playoffs and break a three-year drought.