Red Sox Opening Day Roster Projection 1.0: Lineup Questions, Rotation Battles

We'd be exactly one month away from Boston Red Sox baseball if it were any other month but February. That's cause for excitement and some good old-fashioned roster predictions.

Some things here are set in stone. We know Garrett Crochet is getting the start on the mound when the Red Sox play in Cincinnati on March 25, and we know the first at-bat of the season will belong to Roman Anthony. But that leaves 24 other members of the roster to stort out.

That's our task here, and using a combination of expert analysis and an occasional wild guess, we'll try to go 26-for-26 on the players the Red Sox bring with them to Great American Ball Park.

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Full Red Sox roster projection

Lineup:
1. Roman Anthony LF
2. Trevor Story SS
3. Jarren Duran DH
4. Willson Contreras 1B
5. Wilyer Abreu RF
6. Carlos Narváez C
7. Caleb Durbin 3B
8. Marcelo Mayer 2B
9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF

Yes, we've heard manager Alex Cora say that Marcelo Mayer has to earn his spot. But as long as he stays healthy in camp, the odds seem to be strongly in his favor.

That also leaves a second question of whether it will be Mayer at second, Caleb Durbin at third, or vice versa. The early camp tea leaves have us leaning the former, but don't be shocked if that changes by Roster Projection 2.0.

Bench:
C - Connor Wong
INF - Isiah Kiner-Falefa
DH/OF - Masataka Yoshida
INF- Andruw Monasterio

The fourth and final spot is the most up for grabs, to the point where we might have gone with Nate Eaton on Saturday before Monasterio homered in his first spring training game. Monasterio's track record against left-handed pitching is just a little stronger, so he gets the nod to fill in for Romy Gonzalez.

Another spot could open up if Masataka Yoshida gets traded, but why give up another prospect to get someone who could legitimately be a contributing hitter off the team at this point? Logjams have a way of working themselves out.

Starting Rotation:
1. Garrett Crochet (L)
2. Sonny Gray (R)
3. Ranger Suárez (L)
4. Brayan Bello (R)
5. Johan Oviedo (R)

The first four of these are locks, and the fifth spot is the tighest battle on the entire roster. Oviedo has to fend off two veterans returning from injury in Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, plus the two highly-touted rookie lefties, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said a while back that the Red Sox might have a chance to "chase upside" with that fifth spot, which could mean a rookie, depending on your interpretation. But the fact that the Red Sox traded for Oviedo and clearly think there's more in the tank there leads us to believe he'll get the nod.

Bullpen:
1. CL-Aroldis Chapman (L)
2. SU-Garrett Whitlock (R)
3. Justin Slaten (R)
4. Greg Weissert (R)
5. Zack Kelly (R)
6. Jovani Morán (L)
7. Ryan Watson (R)
8. Seth Martinez (R)

We don't need to waste time on Chapman or Whitlock here. The reality is that only two or three of these spots are up for grabs, and the Red Sox seem to be expressing early confidence in Morán and Watson, the latter of whom was a Rule 5 Draft pickup.

That leaves the eighth and final spot as the true wild card. We've inserted Martinez as a de facto placeholder, because if no more additions are made, the non-roster invites all stand a chance. Watch out for Kyle Keller and Wyatt Olds, plus Crawford if he's healthy for opening day and not in the rotation.