Red Sox's Next Breakout Star Has Already Played Two Years in Boston

There are too many good signs not to predict the breakout this year...

Feb 18, 2019; Lee County, FL, USA; A general view of a Boston Red Sox helmet as Boston Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. (19) walks on the field during a spring training workout at Jet Blue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images | Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela has had a very solid start to his major league career. But after 2026, "solid" won't be a word people are using about him anymore.

We've seen flashes of brilliance from Rafaela before. His late June and July were incredible last year, and he provided the single most memorable moment of the regular season with a walk-off home run against the Tampa Bay Rays. He also made a highlight-reel catch about once a week.

CEDDANNE RAFAELA HITS IT OUT OF FENWAY 😤

THE @REDSOX ARE WALK-OFF WINNERS! pic.twitter.com/6LEzWZVQ7E

— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2025

But we've also seen inconsistency. A chase rate that's far too high. Too many flyouts to right-center field. And while it's not as if those issues are going to vanish into thin air this year, this is Red Sox on SI planting its flag in the ground that Rafaela is going to have a monster season, far surpassing his 2025 campaign.

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Why Rafaela will show major improvement

Feb 22, 2026; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) hits a 2-RBI double during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Rafaela only needs to get to about league average on offense to become an instant five-WAR player. If he hits close to 30 home runs, which he seems capable of doing just based on raw power, we're looking at a down-ballot Most Valuable Player candidate.

So as we're looking for areas of potential improvement, it's worth noting that Rafaela already made solid progress last year in some areas. His xwOBA jumped from the fourth percentile to the 29th -- not great, but a similar jump makes him perfectly average. His strikeout rate shifted from the 22nd percentile to the 56th, and his squared up rate jumped from the 12th percentile to the 39th.

At Fenway Park as a right-handed batter, it's all about pulling the ball in the air. And while Rafaela's most majestic blasts go all the way out of Fenway Park, he only pulled it in the air 16.1% of the time last year, which was just below league average.

We'll just take it as a good sign that Rafaela did this on Tuesday for his first spring home run. It's hard to remember him ever pulling one this far (386 feet) on a ball this close to the foul pole over the past two years.

Ceddanne Rafaela with a solo shot!

Had a double over the weekend. He’s swung it well the last couple of springs. Off to a good start once again.

pic.twitter.com/a6PhzP3yyN

— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) February 24, 2026

The defense gives Rafaela a high floor. But if he elevates to even a 110 wRC+ this season -- something Red Sox fans would gladly sign up for -- we're looking at a bona fide superstar.