Craig Breslow Reveals Why Red Sox's Offense Will Beat Projections

Where's the power coming from?

Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow talks with media at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Pessimistic preseason projections -- try saying that five times fast -- have provided all sorts of bulletin board material for the Boston Red Sox.

The commonly cited ZiPS projection system currently has no Red Sox batter reaching the 20-homer threshold with their median result this year. Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story are tied with 18 apiece, while Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all at 17.

No one on the Red Sox surpassed Story's 25 last season, so fans are right to worry about this team's potential shortcomings in the slugging department. But the chief baseball officer also just made a pretty good point about why those same fans should reserve judgment for a bit.

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Red Sox hitters still have room to grow

Jul 20, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu (52) hits a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

On Monday, Craig Breslow gave an optimistic quote to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic about the team's young hitters continuing to improve, in an apparent attempt to push back on some of the more negative perceptions of this Boston offense.

“It’s one thing to count on guys who had career seasons to come back and repeat those,” Breslow said, per Rosenthal. “But we have a bunch of guys in their early to mid-20s who we think are going to take continued steps forward.”

And as much as Breslow deserves the heat he's taken for not adding a more potent middle-of-the-order bat this offseason, especially in the context of losing Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman in a seven-month span, he's also correct on this point.

Abreu looks like a 35-homer season waiting to happen. Duran could pop off for 25 if he hits the ball in the air more consistently. Rafaela will get to 20 if he has more than one good month. And we haven't even mentioned Roman Anthony, who would be the best bet on the club to receive Most Valuable Player votes.

Yes, the Red Sox are going to be more of a run prevention-first type of team this year than we're used to. But the odds of no one hitting 20 homers is extremely low, and there are too many talented young players for someone not to take a big leap.