Red Sox Starter Projected For $57M Deal With Uncertain Future

The Boston Red Sox will need to address the starting rotation before the 2026 Major League Baseball season gets here and there's one guy who has uncertain future with the organization.

That is, of course, Lucas Giolito. The Red Sox announced on Monday that they were declining their part of Giolito's $19 million mutual option for the 2026 season. There is at least a chance he could still return, though, with a decision from the Red Sox on whether to offer Giolito the qualifying offer not yet announced.

No matter what happens, it's going to be interesting to see what happens next with Giolito, in part because even if he does get the qualifying offer, he could still get more in free agency. The Athletic's Tim Britton projected Giolito to land a three-year, $57 million deal this offseason.

The Red Sox should consider a deal like this for Lucas Giolito

Sep 12, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

"Lucas Giolito, 31," Britton said. "Two years ago, I compared Giolito (off his disastrous finish to the season with the Angels and Guardians) to Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon, projecting him to earn a four-year, $70 million deal. When he signed for basically half that, I felt a little stupid. Now, with the same comps, Giolito is positioned to outearn the deal I had initially proposed, provided his late-season elbow injury isn’t cause for deeper concern.

"Giolito’s rockier health over the last two years probably shortens the length of the deal. But another one worth close to $20 million per season should be in the works. Projection: 3 years, $57 million."

This deal would be a tad bigger in total dollars than Nick Pivetta, who was the guy to watch last year for Boston when it came to the qualifying offer. Pivetta got $55 million over four years after getting the qualifying offer.

There's an argument that a three-year deal at that price could make sense in general for Boston. With the price of pitching, getting Giolito for three years with an annual value under $20 million would be a steal after he logged a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts for Boston in 2025.

At the end of the day, especially with that projected price from Britton, it would arguably make sense to give Giolito the qualifying offer and see what happens.

You either get a really talented pitcher on a one-year deal worth over $22 million ahead of potentially a tricky year for baseball in 2027, or you sign him to a multi-year deal, or someone else does and you get a draft pick back. Frankly, it sounds like a no-lose situation.

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