Red Sox vs. Yankees, Blue Jays: Who Has the Edge?

The Boston Red Sox are coming off an 89-win season and should be better in 2026.

Boston's starting rotation is significantly better on paper with the additions of Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez and Johan Oviedo. Oviedo is beginning the season in the bullpen, but he will help in the rotation at some point. Part of the reason why he's beginning the season in the bullpen has been the emergence of young lefty Connelly Early, who shocked many and made the team out of Spring Training. Overall, the rotation should be among the best in baseball and has more depth than any other team with guys like Payton Tolle, Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval as well.

The Red Sox are also going to get a full season of Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, plus the additions of Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. Of course, the entire outfield is still around as well. There's depth all over the place. Based on the rotation alone, the Red Sox arguably should be considered the favorites in the American League East, but that isn't the case. Right now, FanGraphs has the Red Sox projected to go 86-76 in 2026. In comparison, the New York Yankees are viewed as the favorites by FanGraphs and are projected to go 88-74. The Toronto Blue Jays, who represented the American League in the World Series in 2025, are projected to go 85-77.

Let's dive into how these three teams compare.

Projected Records From FanGraphs:

Mar 23, 2026; Mesa, Arizona, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a single against the Chicago Cubs in the fifth inning at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

New York Yankees: 88-74
Boston Red Sox: 86-76
Toronto Blue Jays: 85-77

The Blue Jays and Yankees both went 94-68 in 2025. The Red Sox weren't far behind at 89-73. The Blue Jays lost Bo Bichette in free agency, but added pieces like Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce and retained Shane Bieber. The Yankees didn't do anything too crazy throughout the offseason. The Yankees retained Cody Bellinger, but the biggest addition for New York in 2026 is actually going to be the return of Gerrit Cole after missing the 2025 season.

Boston had the most active offseason of the three. Key additions include Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez, Johan Oviedo, Willson Contreras, Caleb Durbin, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Danny Coulombe. One key departure, of course, was Alex Bregman.

Top Projected Player By WAR

Feb 26, 2026; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 6.6 WAR
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet — 5.6 WAR
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 4.7 WAR

None of these picks is surprising. Judge is Judge. If he's healthy, he's going to be a game-breaker for the Yankees. Crochet was the second-best pitcher in the American League in 2025 and has a real shot at making a run at the Cy Young Award in 2026. Guerrero is a superstar and is the Blue Jays' best player.

Final Thoughts

Mar 15, 2026; Miami, FL, United States; United States left fielder Roman Anthony (3) rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the fourth inning against the Dominican Republic during a semifinal game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

It's going to be a fun season. It's always an arms race in the American League East and there's a realistic chance that any of these three grab the top spot. Baseball is at its best when the American League is this dominant. You need the Red Sox to be good. You need the Yankees to be good. Having a team with a massive international audience in the Blue Jays being good is a bonus. Boston should be the favorite, but it's going to be a good season overall in the AL East. On paper, the Yankees may have the edge based on projections out there right now, but Boston arguably is top competition.