Red Sox-Cardinals Trades Have Produced Totally Unpredictable Results

Because that's baseball, as the great John Sterling often said

Apr 12, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras (40) hits a two run home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals looked to be headed in opposite directions, and the two trades they made this offseason reflected those directions to a T.

Boston acquired two win-now players in Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, filling holes at first base and in the rotation. The Cardinals got a total of five pitchers, none of whom had anywhere close to a full year of major league service time.

Based on the too-early returns, the Red Sox have fared far better with the players they received than the Cardinals. But because nothing about Major League Baseball ever makes sense, they're also feeling much worse about themselves than the Redbirds are.

If you like our content, choose Sports Illustrated as a preferred source on Google.

Why has trade worked out so strangely for both parties?

May 18, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Entering play on Tuesday, the Red Sox were 20-27, sporting one of the most feeble offenses in Major League Baseball. Were it not for Contreras, who owns a team-high 140 OPS+ and has more than double the home runs of any of his teammates (10), it might be an all-time bad offense.

But the Cardinals, whose first basemen have produced a combined 0.5 fWAR, entered play at 27-19, unexpectedly just a game out of first place in the brutally competitive National League Central. Everything ex-Red Sox boss Chaim Bloom has done with the roster in his first season as president of baseball operations has worked out -- except for the returns on the Contreras and Gray trades.

Pitchers Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts, the two pieces received in the Gray deal, are both out for the season. Hunter Dobbins is the only member of the Contreras trade to appear in the majors, and he was optioned back to Triple-A after one game.

Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita, the other two arms acquired in the Contreras deal, have ERAs of 2.83 and 3.90 in High-A Peoria, respectively.

While Gray would improve the Cardinals' rotation and just about any other, he's a free agent at the end of the year. Contreras, though, was controlled through the end of the 2028 season. Would he be forming a terrifying middle-of-the-order tandem with Jordan Walker in St. Louis right about now?

Objectively speaking, the Cardinals should be more encouraged by their early-season returns than the Red Sox should be. But if either team would have been better served by not making this deal, it's also St. Louis.

That's weird, as baseball so often is.