Re-Drafting the Poorly Picked 2016 MLB Draft

Zero first-round picks from the 2016 MLB draft have been selected to an All-Star Game. It’s ripe for a redraft.

Pete Alonso was selected by the New York Mets in the second round of the 2016 MLB draft. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

You may have heard that the NFL draft is currently unfolding. While the MLB draft is still a few months away, this seems like as good of a time as any to look back on a baseball draft class that’s nearly a decade into their professional careers. Making this exercise even more enticing is that none of the original first-round picks from the 2016 MLB draft have been selected to an All-Star Game to date. It’s ripe for a redraft.

One interesting takeaway that emerged over the course of this process was that while 13 of the 23 original first-round picks were selected out of high school, only six prep players were taken in this redraft—and just two in the top 10. Another thing to note is that since only 14 players from the class of 2016 have made an All-Star team—players who were drafted but did not sign weren’t included in our redraft—we were splitting hairs near the end.

Just as it’s foolish for a MLB franchise to select a player based on what position he plays, given a team’s 25-man roster could look totally different by the time a draft pick ascends to the majors, we largely disregarded a player’s fit with any given franchise and ranked them based on their production. That doesn’t mean some interesting fits didn’t emerge, though.

Dodgers catcher and three-time World Series champion Will Smith earns the distinction of being the No. 1 pick in our 2016 redraft. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

1. Philadelphia Phillies: Will Smith, C, Louisville

Original pick: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon High School (CA)

An argument could be made for another hitter here, but Smith is second in WAR among his draft classmates, plays a premium position and has been part of three World Series-winning teams. Since debuting in 2019, Smith has produced 23.3 WAR while slashing .264/.358/.472, with 130 home runs, 253 RBIs and a wRC+ of 127. He's a three-time All-Star, was named second-team All-MLB twice (2022, '25), and is a cornerstone piece for the Dodgers. The Phillies would take him in a heartbeat on a redraft.

2. Cincinnati Reds: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Saint Mary’s

Original pick: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee

Burnes wound up being the best pitcher from this class, bar none. He was originally a fourth-round pick, but given what we now know, he wouldn’t have escaped the top few selections. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner has produced 19.4 WAR since debuting in 2018, while finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting five times. The four-time All-Star and two-time All-MLB first-teamer led the NL in ERA during the 2021 campaign and strikeouts in 2022. During his eight-year career, Burnes is 63–38, with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and 1,114 strikeouts against 280 walks. At his best, he's an elite starting pitcher as his xERA of 3.19 shows.

3. Atlanta Braves: Bo Bichette, SS, Lakewood HS (FL)

Original pick: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa High School (NY)

Bichette was a second-round pick in 2016, but turned out far better than most of the players selected before him. Since arriving in the big leagues in 2019, the 28-year-old has produced 20.5 WAR, while slashing .292/.334/.464 with a lifetime wRC+ of 120. Bichette is a two-time All-Star (’21, ‘23), led the AL in hits in both ‘21 and ‘22 and was named second-team All-MLB last season. While he’s never become a great defender, and doesn’t have a ton of power, he’s become a hitting machine in the big leagues.

4. Colorado Rockies: Pete Alonso, 1B, Florida

Original pick: Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas High School (KS)

Pete Alonso at Coors Field. Come on, you know you want to see it. Alonso has a strong argument to be the No. 1 pick after being a second-rounder back in 2016, but positional scarcity among the top three picks helps the Rockies get a steal at No. 4. The 31-year-old leads his draft classmates with 23.8 WAR since his debut in 2019. In that time he has slashed .252/.340/.513, with 267 home runs and a 132 wRC+. The five-time All-Star won NL Rookie of the Year in 2019 while being named first-team All-MLB. He notched a Silver Slugger in 2025 before leaving the Mets for the Orioles over the winter.

5. Milwaukee Brewers: Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt

Original pick: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

Reynolds is an under-the-radar guy who wound up as a second-rounder in 2016 but has gone on to have a solid career. He’s a two-time All-Star and has produced 21.9 WAR since his call-up in 2019. He holds a career slash line of .271/.347/.458 with 141 home runs and 197 doubles to go along with a 117 wRC+. He can kind of do everything well without having an overwhelming tool. His defense has gotten worse over time, but he can hit, has some power, can run a bit and has a good arm. He isn’t a star, but is a consistently solid MLB player who produces.

6. Athletics: Shane Bieber, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Original pick: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

Bieber was without question MLB’s best pitcher during the shortened 2020 season, leading the majors in WAR, ERA, strikeouts and FIP with Cleveland to earn the American League Cy Young Award and a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting. The 30-year-old’s strikeout numbers have tailed off since then as he’s battled injuries, but he hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2018 rookie campaign and he won two games for the Blue Jays during last year’s World Series run—before giving up the World Series-deciding home run to, coincidentally, the No. 1 pick in this redraft.

Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen would have added to the Marlins’ wealth of pitching talent in our alternate redraft universe. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

7. Miami Marlins: Zac Gallen, RHP, North Carolina

Original pick: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence High School (AL)

Gallen was in the Marlins’ system for a year and a half after being drafted by the Cardinals in the third round, going to Miami along with Sandy Alcantara in a trade for Marcell Ozuna. But he was shipped to the Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm Jr. before he made it to the majors and has gone on to star for Arizona, earning two top-five Cy Young finishes in 2022 and ’23 and starting the last four Opening Days for the D-Backs.

8. San Diego Padres: Sean Murphy, C, Wright State

Original pick: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford

Since the 2016 draft, the Padres have had trouble finding a franchise catcher. This pick would have solved that. Since arriving on the scene with the Athletics in 2019, Murphy has produced 15.8 WAR while slashing .228/.325/.426. Those numbers won’t blow anyone away, but his career 111 wRC+ is very good for a catcher, and he’s always been a plus defender, evidenced by his 2023 Gold Glove award. The one-time All-Star has seen his offense wane over the past two seasons but Murphy was one of baseball’s best offensive catchers for the first five seasons of his career and could yet have a second wind in him.

9. Detroit Tigers: Tommy Edman, INF, Stanford

Original pick: Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon High School (CA)

Edman has somewhat quietly put together a sterling MLB career buoyed by his undeniable knack for shining when the lights are the brightest. The two-time World Series champion has a great chance to add to that number with the Dodgers and already has an NLCS MVP to his name. His prowess as a defender earned him a Gold Glove back in '21 as a member of the Cardinals.

10. Chicago White Sox: Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)

Original pick: Zack Collins, C, Miami

Luzardo has bounced around a bit since the Nationals made him a third-round pick in 2016. He spent time with the A’s and Marlins before finally finding a home with the Phillies in 2025. That unleashed the best season of the lefty’s career as he went 15–7 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 216 strikeouts against 57 walks in 183 2/3 innings. His xERA (3.33) and FIP (2.90) were both full-season bests while he produced 3.7 WAR. The southpaw is off to a bizarrely poor start to 2026, but his stuff still looks good and he should sort it out in short order.

11. Seattle Mariners: Michael King, RHP, Boston College

Original pick: Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

Not that the Mariners exactly need more pitching, but you can never have enough arms, right? King, a 12th-round pick with the Marlins has matured from a quality swingman early in his career with the Yankees to a bona fide front-line starter with the Padres, whom he started for on Opening Day in 2025.

12. Boston Red Sox: Cole Ragans, LHP, North Florida Christian HS (FL)

Original pick: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat High School (NJ)

Ragans was drafted at No. 30 overall in the compensatory round by the Rangers before being traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2023 (distinguishing him as the highest-picked player to make an All-Star team from his draft class). He broke out in a big way the following year for the Royals at age 26, earning an All-Star bid and finishing fourth in AL Cy Young voting after leading the junior circuit with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while recording a 3.14 ERA over 186 1/3 frames. A shoulder strain interrupted a disappointing follow-up campaign despite his strikeout numbers being even stronger, and a slow start to 2026 doesn’t diminish his lofty potential. Ragans just needs to be more consistent.

David Bednar, a 35th-round pick in 2016, has collected the fifth-most saves in the majors over the past five seasons. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

13. Tampa Bay Rays: David Bednar, RHP, Lafayette

Original pick: Josh Lowe, 3B, Pope High School (GA)

A two-time All-Star reliever with the Pirates, Bednar led the National League with 39 saves in 2023, and his 114 saves since ’22 are the fifth-most in the league. He lost his way for a bit in ’24, but he recovered to salvage his hometown legacy in Pittsburgh and has emerged from a talented Yankees bullpen as New York’s closer following last year's midseason trade. Not bad for a former 35th-round pick.

14. Cleveland Guardians: Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Mississippi State

Original pick: Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (GA)

Lowe doesn’t put up the slugging numbers required of a first baseman to make an All-Star team, but the former 13th-round pick was a rock-solid hitter for the Rangers between 2021–24, when he averaged a touch under 3.0 WAR per season while collecting a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for his trophy case along the way. He’s entered the journeyman phase of his career, suiting up for three teams over the past calendar year, but should be able to fill a role as a solid left-handed hitting bat for a few more years.

15. Minnesota Twins: Austin Hays, OF, Jacksonville

Original pick: Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum High School (PA)

Hays flew under the radar a bit earlier this decade as an all-around outfielder for the Orioles, compiling 8.8 WAR between 2021–23. His lone All-Star appearance at the tail end of that period almost certainly won’t be replicated as he enters his thirties—especially given his struggles with the White Sox so far this year—but he filled an important role for Baltimore and would’ve been a better pick for the Twins at this spot than the one they made.

16. Los Angeles Angels: Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford HS (GA)

Original pick: Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia

A second-round pick by the Angels, Marsh has proven to be a capable, versatile outfielder since being traded to the Phillies for catcher Logan O’Hoppe in 2022. He graded out as an above-average hitter in all four of his seasons in Philadelphia, and though he gave some of that value back while a bit overworked in center field, he’s still a decent left-handed bat in left field.

17. Houston Astros: Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Saint Mary’s

Original pick: Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights High School (TX)

Gonsolin was nothing short of excellent when on the mound for the Dodgers in his first four years in Los Angeles, with the peak coming in his 2022 All-Star campaign, when he posted a 16–1 record with a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts. However, the former ninth-round pick has often struggled with injuries, and they’ve gotten the better of him since then. He’s currently a free agent as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

18. New York Yankees: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford

Original pick: Blake Rutherford, Chaminade College Prep (CA)

The No. 8 overall pick by the Padres in 2016, Quantrill hasn’t lived up to that high pedigree, as his results have widely varied as a soft-tossing righty who mostly pitches to contact. At his peak he won 15 games for Cleveland in 2022 while recording a 3.38 ERA, but his days as a starter mostly saw him fill the role of an innings eater. Hey, there are worse fates. Quantrill is currently trying to reinvent himself as a reliever with the Rangers.

19. New York Mets: Aaron Civale, RHP, Northeastern

Original pick: Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

The steady righthanded starter has already lived a full ballplayer’s lifetime with 10 MLB seasons under his belt, which have featured six different stops. Now with the Athletics, Civale had his best year back in '21 when he won 12 games for the Guardians. A 45–45 career record with 140 starts to his name, Civale has built up 7.3 WAR during his travels.

In our redraft, Zach McKinstry ends up with the same Dodgers franchise that picked him in the 33rd round in 2016. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Zach McKinstry, OF, Central Michigan

Original pick: Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy (WI)

McKinstry's ascent to his 2025 All-Star selection is perhaps one of the more surprising in recent history. The Tigers saw enough in his 121 MLB games with the Dodgers and Cubs to bring him into the organization in 2023 and make him an everyday player. A Swiss Army knife on defense, the former 33rd-round pick has found himself all over the diamond and in big situations during the organization's back-to-back playoff runs. McKinstry’s 4.3 career WAR doesn’t pop off the page but he does have a Silver Slugger to his name as a utility player and has a knack for collecting triples in Detroit’s cavernous home field.

21. Toronto Blue Jays: Luke Raley, OF, Lake Erie College

Original pick: T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

Raley has shown some significant pop at the top level, following up a 19-home run output for the Rays in '22 with 22 long balls for the Mariners a year later. Those seasons saw him post above-average OPS marks (.824 and .783) and explains why Seattle has continued to see his value as a platoon player. He's off to a hot start this campaign with five homers and a .938 OPS.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy

Original pick: Will Craig, 3B, Wake Forest

Lux's flexibility as a defender earned him an ever-changing role on Dave Roberts's Dodgers. He's garnered 7.1 WAR over his 552 games in the bigs and showed that he could be a useful piece on a title-winning club. The 28-year-old has since been traded to the Reds and Rays and has mostly struggled in a role as a utilityman.

23. St. Louis Cardinals: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence HS (AL)

Original pick: Delvin Pérez, SS, International Baseball Academy (PR)

Garrett put things together in his third MLB season back in '22 when he posted a 3.58 ERA and 3–7 record. A year later he improved to 9–7 and stayed steady with a 3.66 ERA for the Marlins. He then logged only 37 innings in '24 before missing the entirety of last year after getting UCL surgery. Earlier this week his comeback trail featured an eight-inning no-hitter for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. With a 0.77 ERA in Triple A, Miami may soon be calling him back to service. Despite not currently being in the majors, Garrett’s potential grants him the final spot in this 2016 redraft over a few players with a bit more MLB success so far.

Honorable mentions: LHP Eric Lauer, 1B Spencer Steer, OF Josh Lowe, LHP A.J. Puk, INF Santiago Espinal, RHP Ian Anderson, INF Cavan Biggio, SS Nicky Lopez

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