Hunter Greene Was Baseball’s Next Big Thing. Now His Career Is in Jeopardy.

Hunter Greene is quickly becoming one of baseball’s great “What If?” guys.

On Thursday, the Reds announced the 27-year-old righthander would undergo Tommy John surgery for the second time. He’ll miss the rest of 2026 and all of ’27, whether there is a season or not. It’s the latest in a string of setbacks for a pitcher once touted as the sport’s next big thing.

On May 1, 2017, Sports Illustrated published an issue with the then-16-year-old Greene on the cover. The magazine boldly claimed he was “the star baseball needs” under two graphics. One said, “Baseball’s LeBron or the new Babe?” And another declared: “He’s 17. He mashes. He throws 102.”

Hunter Greene cover of Sports Illustrated — Hunter Greene graced the cover of our May 1, 2017 issue. | John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated

At the time, Greene was a two-way player for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif., and was already displaying otherworldly talent. He hit 102 mph on the radar gun as a senior, as he went 3–0 with a 0.75 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks in 28 innings. He also hit .324 with six home runs and 28 RBIs while slugging .598. That performance earned him the honor of being the first high school baseball player on SI’s cover since Bryce Harper in 2009.

Tales of Greene’s exploits became legend in scouting circles.

The great Lee Jenkins wrote this of his subject in that profile:

Hunter Greene stands 6' 4" and 210 pounds, hits baseballs 450 feet, throws them 102 mph and gloves them just about anywhere left of second base. When he steps to the plate in batting practice, outfielders shout warnings to the soccer players working out on the adjacent football field, lest they take unexpected headers. At 17, Greene has sent balls out of Petco Park in San Diego and Wrigley Field in Chicago, which is not to imply that he simply deposited them over the fence with a souped-up metal bat. No, he put them out of the stadium completely, with nothing but muscle and wood. Greene began playing in spikes on 90-foot bases when he was seven. The Dodgers’ area scout met him during a pitching lesson when he was nine, deeming his throwing mechanics flawless. Radar guns clocked him at 93 mph when he was 14, the same year UCLA and USC offered him scholarships, well aware that he probably wouldn’t ever step on campus because his draft stock was already so high.

The consensus top player in the 2017 MLB draft, the Twins passed on him at No. 1, selecting fellow prep star Royce Lewis at No. 1. Greene fell to No. 2, where the Reds gladly scooped him up and secured his services with a $7.23 million bonus, the highest figure at the time since the slot system was established in '12.

After a long and winding path through the minors, including undergoing his first Tommy John surgery in early 2019, Greene finally rounded into form as Cincinnati’s ace in '24. That season he went 9–5 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 169 strikeouts against 57 walks in 150 1/3 innings. Greene notched career-best marks in wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, innings, starts (26) and bWAR (6.0). He made the All-Star team and looked like the team’s No. 1 starter of the future, and very well could have won the NL Cy Young Award if he hadn’t missed a month late in the season due to elbow soreness. (Even at his peak, injuries have been a part of his professional story.)

Greene followed that up by going 7–4 with a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 132 strikeouts against 26 walks in 107 2/3 innings in 2025. He only made 19 starts, though, as groin injuries cost him time in May and June.

Before this season, elbow stiffness led Greene to undergo surgery to remove bone spurs and loose bodies from his right elbow. He finally debuted in July but hasn’t been the same pitcher he was the previous two years, save for one fantastic start against the Cubs. His season has reached its end after just 27 2/3 innings. Greene went 2–2 with a 6.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 33 strikeouts.

Hunter Greene absolutely dominated the Cubs last night 🔥

7.0 IP | 3 Hits | 0 Runs | 1 BB | 12 K’s

All of his strikeouts: pic.twitter.com/5pQIdp1oAu
— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) July 11, 2026

The Reds signed Greene to a team-friendly six-year, $53 million deal in April 2023, banking on his talent. While he blossomed in 2024 and ‘25, the glimpse of the player he could be was fleeting. Now he’s back on the injured list where he has spent a good chunk of his career.

This isn’t what anyone expected when Greene was hyped as a high school senior.

The history of pitchers returning from a second Tommy John surgery is not great. While most expect a full recovery from the first, a small fraction of pitchers have returned to their pre-surgery success levels the second time around and only around 61% have even returned to a major league mound.

Greene has as much talent as any player in baseball. His fastball is among the best of his generation, while his slider can be devastating. Unfortunately, his body, which supplied him with all that talent, hasn’t cooperated.

Now, the man who was once baseball’s next big thing could be its latest cautionary tale.

Add us as a preferred source on Google