Here's Why PECOTA Projections Are Wrong About the Cincinnati Reds
The PECOTA projections for the 2024 Cincinnati Reds are wrong. They are running off of incomplete information.
If you are wagering on win totals based on the PECOTA projections, you'll take the under on the Reds 82.5. The reasoning behind the system’s unfavorable look at the Reds would seem to be explained by their expectation that Cincinnati will pitch poorly. This is a flaw in their projection system.
The Reds struggled mightily with starting pitching last year. It is reasonable to assume the algorithm gives far too much credence to this past performances. It is missing one key element: progress.
Related: Why Reds Are Favorites to Win National League Central Division
PECOTA draws it’s expectations of players from the depth charts on FanGraphs.com. This system has no Reds pitcher with an ERA projected to finish below 4.04. This system also projects the pitching staff to largely stay the same when it comes to strikeout ratios and walk ratios.
Last year the Reds only had four pitchers start 20 games or more with Graham Ashcraft leading the team with 26 starts. In these projections, no pitcher starts more than 28 games and only four pitchers make more than 20 starts. Nick Lodolo isn't one of those pitchers, as he is predicted to make almost as many relief appearances (13) as he makes starts (19).
Only Frankie Montas, and possibly Nick Martinez, are pitchers who have more than two years of Major League experience. It is reasonable to conclude that we haven't seen the ceiling for any of the Reds key pitchers. Projection systems don't account for that.
PECOTA projected the Reds to win around 67 games last season. We know how that went down. Do not allow PECOTA to discourage your enthusiasm for the Reds in 2024.
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