Instant Analysis: Cincinnati Reds' Latest Signing Could Have Major Impact

The Cincinnati Reds acquired their main lefty for the 2026 season on Tuesday afternoon. They agreed to terms on a one-year deal with veteran Caleb Ferguson.

The Reds were in dire need of a true left-handed option in the bullpen. Many (myself included) expected the Reds to roll into Goodyear expecting a bounce back year from Sam Moll, bringing back Brent Suter and calling it a day.

Those Reds can surprise us.

Ferguson does a lot of things right. He limits hard contact like there’s no tomorrow. He was in the top percentile in average exit velocity against him (84.8 MPH where league average is 88.6), barrel percentage against him (3.1% where league average is 4.9%), AND hard contact rate against him 27.7% where league average is 37%).

He also keeps the ball on the ground. Ferguson finished last season with a 49.7% ground ball rate. What’s more impressive about that is the comparisons. League average ground ball rate was 44.2% and Reds relief pitchers average ground ball rate was 40.5%.

He will be 29 this coming season so a one-year deal could easily become two or three if the Reds decide to re-up with him. A one-year deal also means little to no risk if he doesn’t pan out. It's a risk-free type of move. If he pans out, then he could be a long-term piece. If not, then at least they tried to bring in a proven option that addresses a key weakness on the roster.

The one thing I will be keeping an eye on that is concerning is his strikeout rate. It dropped dramatically from 2024 to 2025. He was above average at getting the K’s at 26.9% in 2024, but quite below average at just 18.9% in 2025.

He still seems to be good at missing the barrels even when he isn’t missing the bats.

Moll could bounce back, and the Reds could still bring back Suter, but they have a bonafide option in case all of that falls through with the addition of Ferguson to this bullpen for 2026.

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