Jeff Passan Makes Bold Prediction for Reds Flamethrower Chase Burns

The Cincinnati Reds have had a Cy Young candidate for the last few years with Hunter Greene on their roster, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Greene is expected to be out until July at the earliest because of an elbow surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow.

Fortunately for the Reds, they have a very talented and very deep pitching staff. Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns are two of the better young pitchers in the league. Both have been excellent this season. Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer have also pitched well.

ESPN's MLB insider Jeff Passan recently made the bold prediction that Burns would win the 2026 National League Cy Young award. Burns has been talked about as a potential ace with the ability to compete for this award in the future, but after his hot start to the season, Passan believes Burns could win it as soon as this year.

Chase Burns Could be a Cy Young Candidate as Early as This Year

Apr 5, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns (26) celebrates after striking out the Texas Rangers during the sixth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

"Making such a grand proclamation after all of two starts this season is a stretch, but everything about Burns, who's barely 50 innings into his big league career with Cincinnati, suggests it's not as foolish as it looks on its face," Passan wrote. "His stuff is ultra-premium, particularly his fastball (at 98.6 the second hardest on average among major league starters) and slider (generating an otherworldly 56.3% whiff rate).

"The evolution of Burns' changeup, however, is the great separator, and if he can throw it with more confidence (and more arm-side run than last season), it's the sort of pitch that can confound left-handed hitters even more than his primary two offerings do. Yes, Burns is in the same league as Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sánchez. Yes, he can be out-stuffed on any given night by Jacob Misiorowskior or Eury Pérez. They'll all have their moment. This is Burns' time."

The biggest roadblock for Burns is Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. It's hard to compete with Skenes for the award if he's going to continue to post sub-2.00 ERA seasons. But Burns is dominant enough to be able to compete with that kind of production.

Burns' slider might be the best slider in the sport. It may certainly be the best slider from a starting pitcher. He generates nearly 60 percent whiffs on his slider, which is almost unheard of. Pairing that with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and an improving changeup makes him one of the best pitchers in the NL.

Considering Burns has only made 10 starts in the big leagues, it's safe to say his best days are ahead of him. If he can continue to dominate like he has early this year, Passan might be onto something with this prediction.

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