Why PECOTA’s Reds Projection Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

With their first Spring Training game just eight days away, there has been plenty of buzz and optimism surrounding the Cincinnati Reds, and rightfully so.

After flashes of promise last season and a core of young talent beginning to settle into defined roles, Cincinnati feels closer to contention than at any point in recent memory.

The roster is deeper, the lineup is more dynamic with the return of Eugenio Suárez, and the pitching staff, at least on paper, appears more stable than in years prior.

And yet, according to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, the Reds are slotted to finish fourth in the NL Central with a 79-83 record.

For a fan base that has spent most of February building expectations, that ranking lands somewhere between sobering and motivating.

What PECOTA Says

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is "a system that takes a player's past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season," according to their website.

The model does not factor in vibes, nor does it take clubhouse chemistry into consideration. It is conservative by design.

A fourth-place projection in the NL Central suggests a team that is competitive but flawed. It implies that while the Reds have upside, they also carry unpredictability. Young rosters tend to do that, and this is still a young team.

From a pure numbers standpoint, the skepticism makes some sense.

Being in a smaller market, the Reds' success is heavily reliant on internal growth. Year in and year out, their lineup leans on young players taking the next step. Some players did, while others regressed.

Factor this in with the slew of injuries on the roster last season, and the PECOTA's tempered expectations become easier to understand.

The Case for Optimism

Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona (77) sits with general manager Brad Meador at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The good news for Cincinnati is their core is still entering its prime, not aging out of it. Teams built around 23- to 26-year-olds have the potential to make collective jumps that models may underestimate.

Take the 2023 Reds, for example. Coming off a 62-100 record the season prior, Cincinnati surged into playoff contention behind a wave of young talent, briefly taking control of the NL Central and finishing 82-80.

The division landscape also factors into the equation. While the Cubs are favored to win the division this year, the NL Central still feels wide open. Margins are thin between second and fourth place, and a handful of wins could dramatically swing the standings in the Reds' favor.

If the Reds just make marginal improvements in run prevention and situational hitting compared to last season, the difference between fourth place and second or first could be minimal.

Recent history also suggests PECOTA's projections are not always spot-on when it comes to Cincinnati.

Reds recent PECOTA projections vs actual:

2025: 74 ◀️ 83
2024: 79 ▶️ 77
2023: 67 ◀️ 82
2022: 80 ▶️ 62
2021: 79 ◀️ 83

That's an average of being 10 games off one way or another on the Reds per season. Reds have won 9+ more games than their projection in 2 of the last 3 seasons. https://t.co/gQHXBPZiWe
— Nick Kirby (@Nicholaspkirby) February 12, 2026

Nick Kirby's post makes it clear that projection systems are purely educated estimates, not destiny. For a young club still trending upward, history suggests the Reds may once again have room to outperform the numbers.

If the Reds' core takes another leap forward, a fourth-place projection could end up looking more like a floor than a ceiling.

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