How the Looming MLB Lockout Could Actually Benefit the Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies offseason strategy was questioned by many, and for some really good reasons. The apparent strategy was to sign several one-year deals and settle arbitration cases with short-term contracts.

Critics and analysts alike all thought it was just a rebuilding strategy and the typical Rockies motives of keeping payroll low and flexible while allowing prospects the time to develop.

There really wasn’t much news to report because not much was earth-shattering, except the fact that the team was setting records in the wrong direction.

Now though, maybe their strategy was much deeper than could be seen on the surface. The current CBA for the MLB expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, 2026. A lockout is nearly guaranteed from the looks of the negotiations.

Colorado’s strategy this offseason is suddenly looking a lot more interesting. Whether it was really by design or just how they happened to operate and position themselves, the Rockies might be in a better position than almost all the teams in the National League West for whatever these contract negotiations bring.

What the Rockies Did This Offseason

The list of one-year contracts made by Colorado is lengthy.

Michael Lorenzen - one year, $8 million with club option
Jose Quintana - $6 million
Tomoyuki Sugano - $5.1 million
Willi Castro - $12.8 million
Mickey Moniak - $4 million
Brenton Doyle - $3.1 million
Ryan Feltner - $2.45 million
Jimmy Herget $1.55 million
Tyler Freeman - $1.525 million
Brennan Bernardino - $925,000

The only lengthy contract the Rockies own is one of the worst in baseball. Kris Bryant’s $27 million with little to no return on investment.

The Lockout Context For the Rockies

Colorado Rockies first baseman Willi Castro — Willi Castro | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

An MLB lockout would halt free agency, trades, and all team activities once the current CBA expires. Basically, all of the normal transactions that occur in the offseason would disappear until such time as the players and the league reach an agreement.

Right now the biggest sticking point is the salary cap. Owners want it and have made a proposal to the MLBPA as such. Players don’t want it and view it as an attempt to limit their ability to cash in on revenue sharing. Neither side, so far, has shown any sign of giving in on this particular point.

Given the team’s approach in the offseason, they will be able to weather the storm of a lockout better than most.

Two Theories, Both Probably True

Let’s be honest, DePodesta may or may not have been intentionally preparing his team for this possibility. In fact, the distinction of whether or not it was intentional probably doesn’t matter.

From a rebuild standpoint, one-year deals just make sense. A team in Colorado’s position needs all the flexibility it can get. When you are trying to build prospects, locking up veterans long-term on high-dollar contracts isn’t very smart. Teams don’t want to be making large payments to players that don’t have the right support around them.

The organization’s short-term strategies probably would have been “right” regardless of what is happening with the CBA.

Looking back at DePodesta’s history, though, could indicate a much deeper thought process. He is Harvard-educated and made his mark in baseball with the Moneyball A’s. He doesn’t ignore high-level context when constructing his strategies.

It is just as possible as not that DePodesta had much more thought behind his approach than just a rebuild. But, we will probably never know the exact truth there.

Why This Matters at the Trade Deadline

Paul DePodesta | Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

The lockout is undoubtedly on every team’s mind right now, and you have to know that front offices are starting to prepare for what could be a long battle. This will certainly affect moves made at the trade deadline as well.

Teams that are eager enough to spend will want to get their big-ticket players signed before December 1. Contending teams will be more aggressive than usual to acquire desired players. They know that post season trading could be halted for a long period of time.

For the Rockies specifically, expiring contracts turn into currency. Veterans like Willi Castro, Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak will attract interest from contenders looking to add talent without adding long-term commitments.

Truth is, Colorado won’t have a reason to hold onto those players whose contracts are expiring and their record adds even more incentive to trade. They are not contenders and won’t be. The incentive to turn those veterans into prospects that will help speed up the rebuild will continue to increase.

The Bigger Lockout Picture

If the lockout should result in a salary cap (and that’s a big if), the Rockies could emerge in an enviable position across baseball. No long-term commitments, a payroll well below any realistic cap floor adjustments and a system loaded with young talent will be a good position to be in.

Add to all of that the effect of adding a new minority owner in The Penner Sports Group, who has deep pockets, and it seems like a franchise that really did its homework.

None of this positioning theory makes the 21-37 team any easier to watch or less frustrating for fans. Hopefully, when the dust settles and the fight is over, it will look like this team made intentional moves to be in a great position.

Whether or not they did, well, who knows.

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