Kansas City Royals Host Chicago Cubs for Final Series of Homestand: Trends and Stats to Keep an Eye on

The Royals have kicked off August with a 2-3 record and almost swept the Twins there last time out. They welcome the Cubs for their final series of the homestand.

Jul 10, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City pitcher Daniel Lynch IV (41) pitches in the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Royals have one more series in this homestand and it comes against the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to continue their playoff push. The Royals are coming off a series win against the Twins that could have ended in a sweep, until the bullpen blew up in the final game, but they will look to carry that momentum from a series win into the Cubs series. Here are the probable starters and some stats and trends to keep an eye on.

Probable Starters

Game One: Daniel Lynch IV (4-2, 1.96 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (5-10, 4.38 ERA)

Game Two: Seth Lugo (4-7, 4.41 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (4-4, 2.39 ERA)

Game Three: Randy Dobnack (2-0, 1.16 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (7-1, 3.59 ERA)

The Battle of Superstars is Front and Center

This series will see two of the best players in all of baseball playing at premium positions, with both coming in hot. Bobby Witt Jr made his return from the injured list, and in his first series back, he went 6-for-12 with two doubles, two RBIs, a walk, and a stolen base. He will also provide top-tier defense at shortstop, and he will be going toe-to-toe with the potential NL MVP.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been scorching in his last two weeks of play as he is slashing .333/.409/.772 for an OPS of 1.181. Over that stretch, he has 19 total hits, with 13 of them being for extra bases. He doesn't have a lot of reps against Royals pitching, but in 17 plate appearances, he has an OPS of 1.059 and will provide sparkling defense patrolling center field at Kauffman Stadium.

Daniel Lynch IV gets First Start of Season

On May 27, 2025, Daniel Lynch IV made a start against the Cincinnati Reds. In that start, he went 2.2 innings, allowing three hits, a run, and a walk while striking out four. That start was his last start for the rest of 2025 and most of 2026, until the series opener tonight against the Cubs. Lynch has been the Royals best reliever, and probably should have used him in the Twins series finale, but it looks like he will be taking on the opener role for now.

There is some concern with doing this for the Royals, as in his career, Lynch hasn't been a great starter with a career 5.19 ERA as a starter compared to his 2.47 ERA as a reliever. For this series, the Royals are probably hoping he can get through a tough 1-2-3 part of the Cubs lineup before going to either a bulk reliever or a full bullpen day. Either way, this isn't an ideal way to kick off a series, but Lynch has an opportunity to expand his roles and potential value.

Royals Have Good Track Record against Cubs Probable Starters

Jul 28, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) hits an RBI single against the Minnesota Twins in the sixth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This doesn't happen often, but the Royals' bats have a good chance to show out in this series with who the Cubs are trotting out there. Historically, the Royals have hit Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Matthew Boyd well. Gausman has the best numbers against the Royals with a 3.25 ERA, but has not had great luck winning games against them with a 2-3 record. The only current Royals with good numbers against him, however, are BWJ and Starling Marte who both have OPS's above 1.100 against him.

Holmes's track record against the Royals mainly comes as a reliever, but he was not effective against them with a 5.28 ERA. No current Royals player has more than seven plate appearances against him, so it will be a relatively clean slate for Holmes in his second career start against the Royals (first came last year as a Met). "Salvy" has a career home run off of him and John Rave has a double off Holmes.

The Royals have faced Matthew Boyd plenty of times, 30 times to be exact, and he has been inconsistent against them. Boyd has a career ERA of 4.98 against them, but has been good against them since 2020 with a 1.77 ERA. To make matters worse for the current Royals batters, the best bat against Boyd is Luke Maile, who has a double and home run in seven plate appearances against Boyd.

For the Royals to win this series, they need to get some crooked numbers against the Cubs' starting rotation and get good starts from Randy Dobnak and Seth Lugo.