Shane Baz Trade Grades: Did Orioles or Rays Win the Deal?

Baz is headed to Baltimore in exchange for four prospects.

Baz, a former first-round pick, made 30-plus starts in a season for the first time in his career in 2025. / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

MLB's hot stove on Friday produced an in-division trade between American League East rivals in the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles landed former first-round pick and starting pitcher Shane Baz in exchange for prospects Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn. The Orioles are also sending a 2026 competitive-balance Round A draft pick to Tampa Bay.

The Orioles, desperately needing to upgrade one of the worst starting rotations in baseball from the 2025 season, did so in acquiring Baz while the Rays added a quartet of highly-regarded prospects from Baltimore's farm system.

Let's take a deep dive and grade how each club made out in this intradivision deal.

Orioles-Rays Shane Baz trade grades

Orioles
Grade: B+

After taking a big swing to add power to the lineup in the form of five-time Silver Slugger Pete Alonso, Baltimore’s next order of business was clear: upgrade a starting rotation that posted the seventh-worst ERA and strikeout rate in the majors this past season. And the rotation renovations began with the re-signing of Albert Suárez, who has made 25 starts for Baltimore between 2024 and ’25, on a minor-league deal on Wednesday. Friday’s trade marked the first headline-worthy addition to the staff made by Baltimore, though, for Baz is a former first round pick who was highly regarded in the Rays’ farm system in the lead-up to his MLB debut in ‘21.

Only, injuries have prevented the 26-year-old from realizing this potential, as Baz underwent elbow surgery in 2022, then he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery after straining his throwing elbow at the end of the ’22 campaign, forcing him to also miss the entire ’23 season. He returned to good health in ’24 and in ’25 set career-highs in innings pitched (166 1/3) and strikeouts (176) while making 31 starts. Baz struggled to the tune of a 4.87 ERA, but ranked in the 88th percentile in fastball velocity while posting above-average strikeout and ground ball rates.

Baz’s 3.85 expected ERA and 4.37 FIP suggest that he perhaps pitched better than his raw numbers indicate. With good health, this is a plus upgrade for the Orioles’ rotation. Make no mistake, the price Baltimore paid to land Baz, far from a sure thing, is steep: two top-10 prospects in de Brun and Bodine, as well as the club's No. 11 prospect in Forrett and No. 30 prospect in Overn. Losing de Brun and Bodine hurts Baltimore, but their respective paths to playing time in the big leagues were murky with Baltimore’s outfield and catching situation crowded at the big-league and minor league levels.

FREE NEWSLETTER. SI BTN Newsletter. Start off your day with SI:CYMI. dark

Rays
Grade: A-

The Rays played the 2025 trade deadline quietly, choosing to hold onto Baz, All-Star Brandon Lowe and others, instead opting to move expiring contracts such as starter Zach Littell and catcher Danny Jansen. Well, a free agent market moving at glacial speeds with plenty of high-end position players and pitchers available has shifted the focus of teams to the trade market—and Tampa Bay's front office likely couldn't resist selling at these prices. Parting ways with Baz could hurt the Rays in much the same way that parting ways with then-prospect Joe Ryan back in ‘21 has, in that he went on to become an All-Star elsewhere.

But seeing the going-rate for club-controlled starting pitchers—Baz is under team control through 2028—the Rays pounced and landed two of Baltimore's top-10 prospects, one top-15 prospect and another top-30 member of the Orioles’ farm system. Baltimore's No. 6 prospect, de Brun, has great bat-to-ball skills, speed and projects as a capable center fielder, making him a good fit in Tampa Bay's contact-and-defense-over-power archetype. Bodine, a switch-hitter who rarely struck out during his college career, is also a good fit for the Rays' organizational approach at the plate and immediately gives the club a promising prospect behind it. It’s unclear whether Forrett projects more as a mid-rotation starter or reliever, but a 2.07 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 74 innings pitched between high A and Double A ball suggests an ability to get outs and miss bats. The Rays will take that and worry about where he fits later. Overn, who posted a .754 OPS in 114 games between high A and Double A ball, has some pop in his bat and his elite speed figures to make him a plus baserunner and fielder.

Projecting prospects is always a gamble, but the Rays develop prospects as well as anyone in the majors. This haul, coupled with the reported acquisitions in a three-team deal with the Pirates and Astros, gives Tampa Bay multiple big bites at the apple.

---

More MLB on Sports Illustrated

feed