Detroit Tigers Rotation Earns High Regard With Advanced Pitching Analytics
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It's not a surprise that advanced pitching analytics love this Detroit Tigers staff. If the Tigers can repeat their run back to the playoffs, it will be on the backs of their pitching staff.
During the offseason, two significant moves were made to strengthen the rotation. The first was the decision not to trade Tarik Skubal. Only general manager Jeff Greenberg knows how close it was to dealing the Tigers' ace last year and starting over completely.
The second move occurred in December when the Tigers re-signed Jack Flaherty, ensuring that Detroit has the foundation needed to continue allowing its young offense to develop.
The big question remains: Can the Tigers carry last year's success into the current season?
Eno Saris provides advanced analytics for starting pitchers in an article for The Athletic. All five of the projected Tigers' starters are ranked among the top 101 pitchers.
While Skubal and Flaherty are well-known, the depth of the staff raises the question: Is it enough to return the Tigers to the playoffs?
The categories of the analytics are Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+.
While pitchers are all taught balance throughout a repeatable delivery, metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ consider a pitcher's uniqueness.
Certain pitchers have a different arm slot or release points, while others have great extension – releasing the pitch closer to the plate. Additionally, a few pitchers utilize a cross-body release point or successfully hide the ball from hitters.
The introduction of analytics to pitching has revolutionized the craft, incorporating factors like spin rate, maximum effort, measured movement and precise location.
Tarik Skubal
Rank 2, Stuff+ 111, Location+ 102, Pitching + 112, Health 80%, Proj.IP 185, ppERA 2.73, ppK% 28.8%
Tarik Skubal is an absolute stud. The only reason he isn't ranked number one is due to the extraordinary talents of Paul Skenes. Skubal carried the Tigers for much of the last season, helping them navigate a tough first half and leading them into the playoffs while pitching more innings than ever before.
In 2024, Skubal won the triple crown of pitching along with the Cy Young, finishing with a 16-4 record, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings.
He features a four-seam and a two-seam fastball that both sit at 96 mph. Skubal effectively handles left-handed hitters with his slider and right-handers with his change-up.
What sets him apart from starters with comparable stuff is his competitiveness, reminiscent of former Tigers greats like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Jack Flaherty
Rank 50, Stuff+100, Location+ 104, Pitching + 104, Health 86%, Proj.IP 159, ppERA 3.85, ppK% 25.9%
The Tigers re-signed Jack Flaherty in December, signaling they are making a run at the AL Central. Flaherty's market was relatively quiet, which likely reflects his performance at the end of the 2024 season.
He is a four-pitch pitcher whose four-seam fastball averages 93.6 mph. While he has a solid mix that includes his slider and knuckle curve, he has shifted toward using more breaking balls, relying on his knuckle curve as much as his fastball. He will slot into the second position in the rotation.
Reese Olson
Rank 58, Stuff+ 93, Location+ 99, Pitching + 92, Health 84%, Proj.IP 149, ppERA 3.60, ppK% 22.5%
The 25-year-old right-hander Reese Olson is projected into the third spot of the rotation. In 2024, he recorded a 3.53 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP while striking out 101 hitters in 112.1 innings pitched in 22 starts.
Olson relies on varying speeds and precise location. He possesses both four-seam and two-seam fastballs averaging 94 mph. His slider is primarily used against right-handed hitters, while he effectively deploys his plus change-up against lefties.
Pitchers who don't rely on overpowering fastballs can require additional time to refine their skills. If Olson continues to improve his location, he could solidify his position as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Jackson Jobe
Rank 82, Stuff+ + 106, Location+ 97, Pitching + 104, Health ***%, Proj.IP 109, ppERA 4.22, ppK% 20.0%
Jobe began his 2024 season in High-A ball, but by September, he had made his debut in the big leagues. His combined stats for 2024 include a 2.36 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP while striking out 96 hitters in 91.2 innings pitched. His stuff is exciting, and he has the potential to become an ace pitcher.
Although his athletic delivery may make it challenging to replicate, there is some flexibility when his fastball reaches 98 mph. He may need to add movement to make his fastball more dominant. He employs a slider-change-up combination and occasionally cuts his fastball. The slider has impressive vertical movement at 89 mph.
He will likely start in the rotation with a pitch limit but has the potential for a successful spring.
Casey Mize
Rank 101, Stuff+ 97, Location+ 106, Pitching + 103, Health 63% Proj.IP 130, ppERA 4.08, ppK% 19.4%
In 2024, Casey Mize registered a 4.49 ERA with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts across 102⅓ innings in 22 games (20 starts). This is after missing the 2022 and 2023 seasons, having back and elbow surgery.
Now, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Mize appears ready to return to the form that had him positioned as the number two starter heading into 2022.
He has a compact delivery with an over-the-top 12:30 arm slot, featuring a solid 96 mph four-seam fastball complemented by a two-seam fastball.
Additionally, he throws an 11-5 knuckle curve that he uses against both right-handed and left-handed batters, but his most reliable out pitch is a splitter, which he primarily throws to lefties.
If there is a candidate for a bounce-back season, it is Casey Mize. Slotting him at the back end of the rotation would provide the ideal opportunity for him to regain his previous form.
In case Mize or Jobe does not start the spring well, the Tigers have veteran Kenta Maeda available as a backup option.
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I am a lifelong sports fan with a deep passion for Wisconsin sports. Born and raised in Milwaukee, I have always lived in this sports-crazed city and state. With over 25 years of experience coaching baseball and football, as well as a background in business, I have gained invaluable life lessons from my time playing these sports through college. I love engaging in daily banter with fellow sports enthusiasts, approaching each game as if it were a life-or-death experience, because for many fans, it truly can feel that way. Having previously written for OnMilwaukee.com, I’ve been sitting in the bullpen, waiting for the call to once again share my old-school views on the daily sports grind.