Projection Systems Disagree on How Detroit Tigers Will Perform This Season

After a miracle run to the postseason in 2024, projection systems have had a hard time agreeing on how the Detroit Tigers will perform in 2025.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts after pitching the fifth inning of Game 2 of ALDS against Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On July 30, 2024, the Detroit Tigers determined that their 52-57 record and 14-game deficit in the division race was far too great of an obstacle to overcome, so a sell-off ensued.

Exactly two months later, the Tigers held an 86-76 record and the third Wild Card berth for the American League side of the playoff bracket.

It was an improbable run from their pitching staff that helped lead them to October baseball for the first time since 2014, and projection systems have had a hard time agreeing on how the club will perform in 2025.

Fangraphs gives Detroit just a 46.9% chance of returning to the playoffs, while PECOTA has those chances at just 23.1%, a difference of 23.8 points.

It is the fourth-largest discrepancy in MLB.

"The Tigers brought in second baseman Gleyber Torres, starters Jack Flaherty and Alex Cobb and reliever Tommy Kahnle via free agency," wrote Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, "adding them to a roster that already included reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, talented outfielder Riley Greene and a deep bullpen. But while FanGraphs expects the Tigers to be in the AL Wild Card mix once again, PECOTA views Detroit as a sub-.500 club entering 2025."

While the Tigers have certainly made moves this winter to better improve their depth, something they lacked in 2024, specifically in the starting rotation, none of the moves they have made have done anything to move the needle.

The lion's share of their success in the second half of 2024 came from Tarik Skubal and the bullpen, and while Skubal should not see much regression (if any) in 2025, it is hard to expect the bullpen to carry as much of a load as they did last year again during this campaign.

The offense has not seen any real improvement, even with the addition of Gleyber Torres, though Riley Greene began his ascent to prominence in the AL Central with his offensive performance last season.

While it is much more enjoyable to look at this franchise and think that they can return to the playoffs again in 2025 after doing so in 2024, it is much more realistic to understand the 34-19 run they went on over the last two months of the year may not be repeatable.

The moves they have made this winter have fallen short of making any real improvement to the roster, and PECOTA is much closer to spot-on with their projection of 2025 than Fangraphs.