Tigers Superstar Ace Projected to Continue Streak of Elite Performance

The Detroit Tigers have decisions to make surrounding their ace, but given his previous success, 2026 should be no different, so long as he remains on the team.

Jun 8, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; A wide shot from high up behind home plate as Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Marco Gonzales (7) pitches to Detroit Tigers designated hitter Willi Castro (9) during the third inning at Comerica Park. | Raj Mehta-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers have plenty of decisions to make this winter, but the most notable one is how to handle the Tarik Skubal situation.

He is expected to get one of the largest contracts in MLB history for a pitcher when his current deal ends next winter, and that would leave the Tigers in a situation where they would have to re-sign him at market value, or let him walk for nothing.

So, a trade is also a possibility this offseason, and that would be a league-shattering one, predominantly in terms of return value. Regardless, at least for now, he is on the roster, so his 2026 season will be the focus unless something changes in the near future. His production in 2025 was consistent with his 2024 season, where he was far and away in the elite category of arms, winning the American League Cy Young Award both years.

FanGraphs recently put out their 2026 Steamer projections, and they believe Skubal will be able to maintain this type of performance into next year as well. Despite some slightly lower numbers comparatively, they have him sitting among the best once again with their predictive model.

What Will Skubal's 2026 Look Like According to FanGraphs?

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According to the FanGraphs projections for next season, Skubal will remain a top starting pitcher in the MLB once again. Their model has him producing 5.9 fWAR, as in 32 starts, he would have a 2.81 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 14-9 record, 10.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a .289 BABIP across 199.1 innings of work.

This is not exactly his best season, comparatively, with his fWAR dropping by 0.7, his ERA dropping quite substantially, and a few other numbers looking less impressive. Regardless, he is getting a similar level of production out of his arm, which is exceptional given he already has back-to-back seasons of elite play.

Team USA adds the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner to its rotation 😯

Tarik Skubal is IN for the #WorldBaseballClassic! pic.twitter.com/ALh64aqH74

— MLB (@MLB) December 18, 2025

The big question would be how to replace this if he were to be traded, but when it comes down to it, if the franchise were to move him, it would allow them to utilize the money they would've spent on him elsewhere, while also getting some more controllable assets back.

Granted, that does not allow them to have a Skubal-type player on their roster, and year after year, he is proving to be someone that should be the cornerstone of a franchise, and paid as such, so it will be fascinating to see how that plays out.