Troubling Stat Points to Major Regression Incoming for Detroit Tigers Rookie

It has been a strong start to the season for the Detroit Tigers rookie pitcher, but it may not be sustainable.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Jackson Jobe (21) looks before throwing against Kansas City Royals during the second inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Friday, April 18, 2025 | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers called up their top pitching prospect, Jackson Jobe, late last year to gain some experience pitching to MLB-level batters. Through two starts and four innings of work, he allowed only one hit and one walk, and did not allow a run to score.

This year, he opened the season on the Major League roster, making his first career start in the Tigers' fourth game of the year. Entering Thursday, he has now made five starts in 2025, and carries a 3.38 ERA across 24 innings with 18 strikeouts and a 117 ERA+. It is a magnificent start to the campaign from the rookie, but is it sustainable? Underlying metrics say, "maybe not."

While the surface-level numbers may be good, they have come with Jobe struggling to make batters swing and miss, or whiff, on his four-seam fastball. It is not a slow offering; he has averaged 96.3 MPH on the pitch, placing in the 83rd percentile in MLB this year. But batters have only whiffed on it at an 8.8% clip.

Among four-seam fastballs that have drawn at least 50 swings this year, that 8.8% whiff rate ranks as the worst in MLB. The rest of the top five are Roki Sasaki at 8.9%, Nathan Eovaldi at 9.1%, Antonio Senzatela at 10.1%, and Mitchell Parker at 10.6%. Not the best company to be around, outside of Eovaldi.

Jobe has thrown his four-seamer 122 times this year, and batters are hitting .286 on the offering with a .619 SLUG. He has allowed six total hits on the pitch, the most of any in his repertoire, with two going for home runs, and only two strikeouts coming from it. It has generated -1 run value so far, ranking in the 32nd percentile in MLB.

If there is a saving grace for Jobe, it is that his breaking pitches are much better. They have combined to tally five runs of value thus far, 98th percentile in MLB, with four of those alone coming from his slider. He has begun to turn to that pitch more often, using it as his primary offering. While the fastball has been thrown 122 times, the slider has been thrown 138 times.

Not every pitcher needs to have a dominating fastball. But when you are incapable of making batters miss on the pitch, it does not bode well for you in the long run. Despite his 3.38 ERA, he carries a 4.95 FIP and a 3.64 xERA.

Regression for the rookie is coming if he can not improve his four-seam fastball. For Detroit's sake, just hope it is closer to the xERA and not the FIP.