Three takeaways from Minnesota Twins' rough first week of 2025 season

Just over a week into the season, the Twins are 2-5. Here's what has stood out so far.

Apr 3, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins infielder Carlos Correa (4) breaks his bat on a foul ball against the Houston Astros sixth inning during the at Target Field. | Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

The Twins are a little over a week into the 2025 season, and things haven't exactly gone to plan so far. They got off to a very ugly 0-4 start to the year, then bounced back with a couple comfortable wins over the White Sox before dropping Thursday's home opener against the Astros.

The record is 2-5, the run differential is -15, and the team statistics are very poor (29th in OPS, 28th in ERA as of Friday morning). The good news is that the rest of the AL Central has gotten off to slow starts as well. It's also a very long season that is just over four percent complete. With the Twins having Friday off, it felt like a good time to look back at the first seven games of the year and discuss some takeaways.

Correa at the forefront of struggling offense

Outside of the two wins against the lowly White Sox, the Twins' bats have not shown up this season. They're collectively hitting .180 with a .534 OPS and just five home runs thought seven games. In their five losses, they've scored a total of eight runs.

It's been a team-wide issue. Of their 11 players with at least ten plate appearances, only two (Harrison Bader and Willi Castro) have an OPS above .670. Castro leads the team in batting average at .261. There are slow starts basically across the board.

But no one exemplifies the Twins' early offensive struggles more than Correa, their highest-paid player by far and best hitter in two of the last three seasons. He's gone just 2 for 25, with both hits coming in Wednesday's game in Chicago. When your 2-hole hitter is hitless in six of seven games, that's not usually a recipe for success.

Carlos Correa celebrates his first hit of the season after making a bunch of hard-hit outs while starting 0-for-18: pic.twitter.com/Uardw3kNVr

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) April 2, 2025

The good news is that the underlying data suggests Correa should be fine. He's making a lot of contact, some of it pretty hard contract, and simply finding gloves. Correa's bat speed is elite and his expected slugging percentage is in the 61st percentile.

The Twins need their top three hitters — Matt Wallner, Correa, and Byron Buxton — to heat up and hit like they usually do. If and when that happens, the offense should come alive, with much of the rest of the lineup (guys like Trevor Larnach, Ty France, and Ryan Jeffers) also due for some positive regression.

Starting pitching rotation has disappointed

Coming into this season, one of the strengths of the Twins' roster was supposed to be a rotation headlined by Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. That group has been disappointing so far; Twins starters have a 7.59 ERA, which ranks dead last in baseball. That's been the main issue for Minnesota from a pitching standpoint, considering the bullpen's 2.67 ERA ranks tenth.

Lopez was a bit shaky on Opening Day but much better in his second start. Ryan was good in St. Louis, then gave up four earned runs at Target Field on Thursday. Doing most of the damage to the Twins' ERA was consecutive blowup outings from Ober and Chris Paddack, the team's No. 3 and 4 starters. Those two will need to be much better during their second trip through the rotation this weekend if the Twins are going to win a game or two during this Houston series.

Christian Walker hits his first Astros homer then Jeremy Peña makes it back-to-back blasts! pic.twitter.com/WywRrge15a

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 3, 2025

No. 5 starter Simeon Woods Richardson only got through four innings in his first outing. SWR won't have a short leash, but with David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Andrew Morris down at Triple-A St. Paul, his rotation spot is far from guaranteed all season.

Bader, Castro have been early standouts

Three of the Twins' five home runs this season belong to Bader, who easily leads the team with 8 RBI. Notably, all three of his homers have come off of breaking balls from right-handed pitchers. Last season, Bader had just seven homers against righties in 284 plate appearances. He's already at three in 19 PAs this year.

Back-to-back days with a 3-run homer for Harrison Bader 🤟 pic.twitter.com/BcwGMrwter

— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2025

It's immediately clear that Bader is going to be an upgrade, both offensively and defensively, from Manuel Margot. But it also feels unwise to get carried away with Bader's hot start. He has just four total hits, zero walks, and has struck out four times. He can provide a bit pop from the bottom of the lineup — and he'll eventually start getting some plate appearances against lefties — but he also seems unlikely to suddenly become a major power hitter or key offensive producer.

The other standout of the season's first week is Castro, who is tied with Bader for the team lead in extra-base hits (4) and with Buxton for the lead in total hits (6). Another strong season from the All-Star utility man would be big for Minnesota's lineup.