How Much Can the Twins Actually Spend This Offseason?

Tom Pohlad expects a higher payroll in 2027. Existing contracts, arbitration raises and old trade obligations will determine how much of that increase reaches new players.

Minnesota Twins manager Derek Shelton. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Minnesota Twins chairman Tom Pohlad says the club intends to invest meaningfully this offseason, but he declined to set a 2027 payroll figure at Minnesota's year-end news conference. That leaves an essential question behind every possible free-agent target: How much of the next payroll is already spoken for?

FanGraphs' RosterResource payroll ledger estimates Minnesota's 2026 payroll at about $111 million. Its early 2027 figure is also about $111 million, but that second number does not yet include salaries for the team's players who have not reached arbitration. It is a starting point for the calculation, not an available spending balance.

Four Guaranteed Contracts, Plus Money Owed Elsewhere

Four Twins have guaranteed 2027 salaries. Pablo López is due $21.75 million, Byron Buxton about $15.14 million, Jeff Hoffman about $12.67 million and Victor Caratini $6.5 million. Together, those salaries total about $56.1 million before accounting for money exchanged in trades. Toronto is contributing $3.75 million toward Hoffman's 2027 cost, and his original signing bonus is also carried separately in the payroll accounting.

The Carlos Correa trade remains on Minnesota's books. RosterResource lists a $10 million payment to Houston in 2027 and about $1.33 million in remaining signing-bonus obligations.

Correa will not occupy a Twins roster spot, but those payments still limit the money available for one. Potential buyouts, including $1.25 million on Josh Bell's $10 million mutual option, add to the ledger if the options are declined.

Joe Ryan's $13 million mutual option needs similar care. If either side declines it, Ryan remains under Minnesota's control through arbitration. The option is not a choice between paying $13 million and losing the pitcher; his projected arbitration salary would still have to be funded.

Expiring Salaries Are Only Part of the Opening

Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ryan Jeffers, A.J. Minter and Taylor Rogers have expiring deals. Jeffers earned $6.7 million in 2026 and Rogers $2 million. Minter's contract carried an $11 million salary, but Minnesota acquired him during the season, so his entire 2026 salary was never a Twins expense. Bell made $5.75 million in 2026, with his mutual option still unresolved.

Their departures could open roster spots and remove some costs. They could also create bills for a starting catcher, left-handed relief and first base. Re-signing Jeffers, making him a qualifying offer or bringing back either reliever would change the calculation again. Adding the four headline salaries and calling the sum a free-agent budget would miss those replacement costs and the arbitration raises already coming.

Arbitration Makes the Spending Promise Measurable

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2027 arbitration projections put 10 Twins at a combined $47.3 million if all are retained at their estimated salaries. Ryan leads at $9.6 million, followed by Bailey Ober at $6.9 million, Dean Kremer at $6.5 million, and Trevor Larnach at $6.3 million. Royce Lewis, Taj Bradley, and Kody Clemens add another projected $13.2 million. These are estimates, not signed contracts; trades and non-tenders could change the total.

RosterResource's roughly $111 million 2027 estimate includes those arbitration projections, the guaranteed deals, and the payments and potential buyouts described above. It still leaves out salaries for the remaining players. Using its roster-planning method and the 2026 minimum salary of $780,000 as a temporary yardstick adds roughly $15 million to $16 million for younger players and in-season depth. That places a provisional working baseline near $126 million before outside additions, assuming the 10 arbitration-eligible players are retained and the pending mutual options are declined. A new labor agreement could change the minimum salary and that estimate.

The arithmetic puts Pohlad's pledge in perspective. At a hypothetical $140 million payroll, Minnesota would have roughly $14 million beyond that baseline; at $150 million, roughly $24 million. Neither figure is a club-announced budget. Non-tenders could create additional room, while a Jeffers return, an exercised option or another trade acquisition would use some of it.

The Twins have room to add talent because ownership can choose a higher payroll, not because the current ledger shows a large unclaimed pot. Pohlad's eventual number, followed by the option and arbitration decisions, will show whether Minnesota can pay for both a substantial addition and the bullpen depth this roster needs.