Twins at the 1/3 Mark: Playoff Odds, Reasons for Both Doubt and Belief

If the season ended today, exactly one-third of the way through the 2026 season, the Twins would be in the playoffs. They're just 26-28 through 54 games, so the fact that they currently occupy a wild card spot (by just 0.5 games) says a lot about the overall state of the American League. Still, the Twins have gone 10-5 in their last 15 to create some hope that they'll have a more competitive and relevant summer than most people anticipated coming into this year.

Coming off of last year's trade deadline fire sale and a subsequently quiet offseason, expectations for the 2026 Twins were in the gutter when this season began. Sportsbooks set their win total at around 72 games, and that may have been too high if you asked much of the fan base.

Through a third of this season, the Twins are on pace to win 78 games. And in a weak AL, they've set themselves up to be in the mix for a wild card spot. Derek Shelton and his team have to be feeling OK about where they're at right now, even if the first hockey period of the season has been a rollercoaster:

3-6 in first 9 games
8-1 in next 9
5-16 in next 21
10-5 in last 15

Can the Twins keep it up and remain in the race when the August 3 trade deadline rolls around?

Current playoff odds

Heading into Tuesday night's game, Fangraphs gives the Twins a 32.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. That feels fairly reasonable, if perhaps a bit high. Baseball Reference has the Twins at 13.3 percent, which legitimately feels too low.

Reasons for doubt

The primary reason for skepticism around the Twins is still their bullpen. It's been a somewhat frisky group that is on pace to break the MLB record for most players with a save in one season, but it's still a bullpen with a 4.70 ERA that ranks 26th in baseball. Any late lead feels precarious, as the Twins hand the ball to players like Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez in the ninth inning. Not having defined roles or proven options on the back end makes sustained success a difficult ask.

The offense may be another reason for doubt. The Twins are 12th in the league in OPS, but they're going to be without one of their best hitters for a while after Ryan Jeffers broke his hamate bone. Outside of Byron Buxton, this Twins lineup has Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, and not much else (with respect to solid starts from Brooks Lee and Kody Clemens).

Luke Keaschall, Matt Wallner, and Royce Lewis were supposed to be key pieces of the lineup this year. Wallner and Lewis were so bad that they were sent down to Triple-A (although Lewis has at least raked since going to St. Paul). Keaschall has a .623 OPS and may be at risk of a demotion himself. The result has been the Twins relying on guys like Ryan Kreidler and Orlando Arcia. It doesn't help that newcomers Josh Bell and Victor Caratini have struggled mightily as well.

Reasons for hope

The No. 1 reason to believe in this Twins team is that basically every night, there's a pretty good chance they're going to get a competitive outing from their starting pitcher. Despite losing Pablo Lopez before the season, Twins starters have a collective 3.82 ERA that ranks eighth in baseball. It's been an impressive, resilient couple months from the rotation as a whole.

Joe Ryan is an ace. Taj Bradley has also pitched like an ace this year, and he showed no signs of rust after a recent stint on the 15-day IL. Bailey Ober has bounced back from a brutal 2025 and pitched well so far. Connor Prielipp has shown a lot of positive signs in his first six MLB starts. And Zebby Matthews, in his first three starts of the season, has been a massive upgrade from Simeon Woods Richardson, whose shift to the bullpen was overdue. If they can get Mick Abel back healthy at some point, this could be quite the rotation.

Connor Prielipp | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The other reason for hope is that the offense has a superstar in Buxton, who has a .901 OPS and is on pace to hit 48 home runs this season. He just needs a little more help from guys like Bell and Keaschall and maybe even Lewis, who all have the talent to bounce back from slow starts.

Add us as a preferred source on Google