What Should Concern Twins Fans About Byron Buxton’s Slump

It has been two months since Byron Buxton hit a home run. Since last June 23, he has recorded 93 plate appearances without a home run in 23 games. During that span, he is hitting .171/.258/.220, with a .478 OPS and more strikeouts (19) than hits (14).

The loss of power could lead to a different kind of regression if this were a hitter with another profile. But in Byron’s case, who depends on his power, the story is different. He is going to look for ways to get the ball out of the park in most of his at-bats and has the responsibility of leading the Minnesota Twins’ offense. His power always adds a value that is difficult to replace in the lineup’s formula for creating runs.

The situation is more concerning because Buxton is posting his lowest strikeout rate (24.3%) in a season with at least 350 plate appearances, per Statcast. He has been avoiding those strikeouts in a good number of difficult two-strike at-bats, while his chase rate on pitches outside the zone is at 34.2%.

If we narrow the homerless slump to his last 13 games, the news is even more concerning. His OPS has plummeted to .323, mostly because of the decline in slugging. In those last 52 plate appearances, Buxton has just one double as an extra-base hit, one RBI and 12 strikeouts.

The Problem Isn’t Just Against Fastballs

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The opposition knows where the danger zone is: Buxton has hit 17 of his 25 home runs against fastballs this season and has the seventh-highest xSLG (.595) in the league among qualified hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.

During the most recent stretch of his inconsistencies, pitchers are using the slider and sweeper more often to try to generate swings and misses from Buxton, but they are finishing at-bats with the fastball.

Pitch Type	PA	xSLG	Whiff%	HardHit%
Four Seamer	14	.386	44.8%	62.5%
Slider	7	.317	50.0%	40.0%
Sinker	7	.576	10.0%	33.3%
Changeup	6	.499	11.1%	40.0%
Sweeper	9	.100	60.0%	50.0%

As you can see, over these last 13 games, from July 24 through the present, Buxton has not been able to solve his at-bats against the sweeper and slider. The combined whiff rate is 55%, and he also has a similar rate when he misses against four-seam fastballs.

The best news these metrics suggest is that, at least when he hits the ball, Buxton’s swing still has enough power to maintain the quality of contact. So the big problem is getting to that contact. Otherwise, we would be talking about a bigger problem for the Twins.

Byron Buxton hitting heat Map — Byron Buxton | Basebal Savant

This heat map also corresponds to the most recent stretch of his last 13 games, where Buxton’s slugging has fallen from .220 to .111. As you can see, he is becoming more vulnerable when pitchers throw to the upper inside part of the zone, as well as breaking pitches located in the lower areas and, above all, on the outer corner.

In the graphic we have on the right, we can see how the heat of his swing is concentrated mainly in the upper part of the zone and in some points far from the lower and outer edge.

There are also too many swings against balls outside the strike zone. And what catches my attention the most is that this has not destroyed the quality of contact, but it has reduced the power.

That is the key for Buxton. He has to find a balance between the pitches he chooses to attack, the adjustments to his swing and the need to once again prioritize contact. The metrics show that, as he regains his reach within the strike zone, his power can take care of the rest of the work.

Home runs, of course, can help. But they are not going to change this slump by themselves. Buxton has much more potential to recover his offensive contribution if he finds again the quality of contact that has defined much of his value as a hitter.

All statistics were verified using Statcast from Baseball Savant.

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