Why the Yankees Believe They Can Get More Out of Lou Trivino
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When the Yankees acquired starting pitcher Frankie Montas from the Athletics, they also added Lou Trivino and his 6.47 ERA.
That number may have left New York fans wondering, “Why this guy?” But the Yankees quickly made it clear that they see something beneath the surface.
“We see a lot of underlying data that excites us,” Brian Cashman said of Trivino. Aaron Boone made a similar assertion with the same buzzword, stating, “[We] feel like he's having a little bit of a down year statistically, but we don't think it lines up with what we're seeing on some of the underlying things.”
So what about Trivino’s underlying numbers suggest that his inflated Oakland ERA lied about his abilities?
For one, the right-hander was victimized by a .451 batting average on balls in play with the Athletics. With a career-high 53.2 percent ground ball rate and one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him, Trivino was bound to fail.
The Yankees, however, boast one of MLB’s best defenses, making the 30-year-old a much better fit in New York. His 28.7 K% and 8.9 BB% with the A’s were also personal bests, and those numbers outperform what the Yankees’ bullpen has done as a unit this season.
Trivino’s 3.84 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 2.89 SIERA in Oakland also indicated the A’s weren’t maximizing his potential. The same conclusion can be reached when visiting Trivino’s Baseball Savant page, which has him in the red for Average Exit Velocity, K%, Whiff%, Chase Rate, and Fastball Velocity.
Baseball Savant
With a better defense behind him and some tweaks, Cashman believes Trivino can be a “wipeout guy against right-handers,” at the very least.
While the data hints that there’s more to Trivino than his ERA – which is down to 6.15 after his first two Yankees appearances – advanced metrics are not the only reason New York pursued the pitcher.
For one, Trivino is under team control through 2024 and making an affordable $3 million this year. The Yankees can hang on to him through arbitration for two more seasons after 2022, giving them a valuable bullpen piece if Trivino turns out to be the pitcher the organization believes he is – and the one he previously was.
(Trivino recorded a 3.34 ERA from 2020-2021 and tallied a 2.92 mark as a rookie in 2018.)
Boone and Cashman also noted Trivino’s closing experience; he has 32 saves since the start of last season. The Yankees won’t ask Trivino to close with any regularity, but they now have two extra relievers – the other being Aroldis Chapman – who have performed the high-pressure job behind Clay Holmes. Zack Britton will give them a third if he returns, as expected, before the end of the season.
Boone added that Trivino has postseason experience – he owns a 1.59 ERA over 5.2 playoff frames – meaning he’s prepared for the stretch run and October.
“He's obviously been a very good reliever for [Oakland] on some playoff teams and playoff caliber teams,” said Boone, who added that the Yankees have had their eyes on Trivino for a long time. “So to get another veteran guy that we think will fit in nicely to our pen and just add to the depth, we're excited about that, too.”
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