NBA draft lottery preview: Five things to watch

The NBA draft lottery kicks off at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, but not before we preview it with takes on the Sixers, Celtics and more.

Author:
Jeremy Woo
Publish date:
May 17, 2016

Elation. Frustration. Apprehension. Ping pong balls. To the relief of everyone who’s ever made a mock draft, not to mention 14 teams, players, agents, et cetera, in less than 24 hours, we will know the order of the draft.

There are a lot of storied franchises with pretty good chances to win. There’s been a lot of tanking that could pay off. Fates of franchises will be altered. We will all remember that Mark Tatum is the deputy commissioner of the league. It will all be drawn out on television. Here are some things we'll be wondering about, accordingly.

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• DRAFT LOTTERY: Odds, teams, order | How does the lottery work?

1. What will happen to the Sixers?

The greatest extended tank job of all-time bears its annual, and perhaps final fruits, on Tuesday night. After the exodus of Sam Hinkie, the 76ers are set for one more round of benefits: they have a 26.9% chance of winning the first pick. The extra 1.9 is because they own a pick swap with the Kings. I’m not sure which franchise that says more about.

Anyway, the best case scenario for the Sixers: 1) win the lottery outright, 2) then have two teams leapfrog the Lakers, who have the second-best odds to win, so that 3) L.A.’s pick defaults to fourth overall and is thusly conveyed to Philadelphia as a delayed after-effect of the Steve Nash-to-Lakers trade in 2012, via that Michael Carter-Williams/Brandon Knight three-team trade at last year’s deadline.

Oh yeah, about the Lakers: related subplot 1A is whether or not L.A.’s possibly veiled attempt to keep its top three-protected pick, by letting Kobe mask exactly how bad the team was, will pay off. It would be an abject disaster if Luke Walton’s Lakers (that sounds weird) do not pick in the top two (maybe three) of this draft. Which gets us to subplot No. 2…

Beating the NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Orlando Magic

Since the NBA instituted a weighted lottery system before the 1990 draft, nine teams with a less than 10 percent chance of winning the drawing have been awarded the No. 1 pick. No team beat the odds quite like the 1993 Magic, who, after barely missing the playoffs at 41-41, made good on their 1.5 percent chance (1 Ping-Pong ball out of 66) to claim the top spot for the second consecutive season (they had snagged Shaquille O'Neal in '92). Orlando wound up selecting Chris Webber and trading him to Golden State for Penny Hardaway and three first-round picks. Two years later, Shaq and Penny led the Magic to the NBA Finals.

Golden State Warriors

After the Warriors delivered on their 9.4 percent chance, then-general manager Dave Twardzik said, ''Whoever you take, some people are going to say, 'How could pass on this [other] guy?' '' Twardzik experienced the second-guessing first-hand: The Warriors chose forward Joe Smith while the rest of the top five was Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett.

New Jersey Nets

Pegged to draft seventh after a 31-51 season, the Nets instead cashed in on their 4.4 percent chance of winning the lottery. New Jersey picked forward Kenyon Martin, who proved to be a key part of back-to-back Finals teams in 2002-03 before being shipped to Denver as part of a sign-and-trade deal in 2004.

Houston Rockets

An 8.9 percent chance was enough for the Rockets to leapfrog four teams and win the Yao Ming sweepstakes. Yao was productive when healthy, but the healthy part didn't happen nearly as much as Houston would have hoped. The 7-6 center retired in July 2011 after nine seasons in which he averaged 19 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks, with a 6.3 percent chance, jumped from sixth to first and selected center Andrew Bogut ahead of point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Bogut spent seven years with the Bucks before being traded to Golden State. He led the league with 2.6 blocks in 2010-11.

Toronto Raptors

General manager Bryan Colangelo entered his first draft in Toronto with the biggest prize after the Raptors vaulted to the top despite only an 8.8 percent likelihood. The Raptors used the choice to make Italy's Andrea Bargnani the NBA's first European No. 1 pick. Bargnani averaged a career-high 21.4 points in 2010-11 and followed that with 19.5 points in an injury-shortened 2011-12, but he's been criticized for his defense and rebounding.

Portland Trail Blazers

While the teams with the three worst records -- Memphis, Boston and Milwaukee -- got the fourth, fifth and six picks, Portland won the lottery with its 5.3 percent chance. The windfall didn't pay off, however, as the Trail Blazers passed on Kevin Durant in favor of Greg Oden, who has played only 82 regular-season games over five seasons because of persistent knee injuries. The Blazers waived Oden in March 2012.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls turned their 1.7 percent chance into the first pick. They did just fine with it, too, selecting Chicago native Derrick Rose, who was the 2008-09 Rookie of the Year, an All-Star a year later and the league MVP in 2010-11.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers used the pick obtained in a trade with the Clippers to win the No. 1 pick despite just 2.8 percent odds. That put them in position to draft Duke point guard Kyrie Irving, who turned into the Rookie of the Year and the centerpiece of their post-LeBron rebuilding effort.

2. Who gets the third pick?

If you like to think about drafts in terms of prospect tiers based on quality, then picking third this year is a fairly-undesirable outcome. This is because Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons, in some order, are the only sure things in this draft—after that, there’s a lot of uncertainty and a variety of things that could happen, with the No. 3 overall prospect far from a consensus. Maybe it means rolling the dice on Dragan Bender, maybe it’s investing in Jamal Murray or Kris Dunn, or maybe it’s something completely different. But the level of uncertainty — and ensuing scrutiny — picking third is certainly heightened.

3. Will the Wolves go back to back?

The Thib-berwolves era truly begins with this draft, and with the last two first overall picks already on board, winning the lottery again and adding to an enviable young core will position Minnesota more comfortably than the majority of the league for the next five years, at minimum. Tom Thibodeau looked pretty happy to be back as he hung around the draft combine last week. That smile could widen with a strong outcome on Tuesday.

Imagine Ben Simmons bringing the ball up the court, throwing lobs to Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Think about Brandon Ingram popping threes off cross-court skip passes from Karl-Anthony Towns. On the fun meter, Minnesota either winning the lottery or sliding into the top two is definitely up there with the top possible scenarios. It doesn’t get more tantalizing than this.

Report: LSU’s Ben Simmons to sign shoe deal after draft lottery

4.Existential angst meter, New York City edition

Denizens of the New York metro area need have no jitters, but could be in for an exasperating night. The Knicks don’t have a pick. The Nets don’t have a pick. New York’s selection goes to either Denver or Toronto—essentially, if the Knicks leapfrog the Nuggets, they’ll have to swap with them, and if their pick is lower, it goes to the Raptors. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s pick belongs to the Celtics outright.

Not to group the two camps together too hard, but basically, there’s no way fans of New York teams go home happy unless the Knicks decide to hire a coach who is not Kurt Rambis tomorrow night. Both teams are going to have to trade into this draft, and they’ll have to pay to do so. At least neither even has to send a rep to the podium. Phil Jackson skipped the draft combine anyway … so it’s pretty chill.

5. Who’s repping?

The league has cracked back on children of ownership and other miscellaneous, non-basketball figures representing teams at the podium. Instead, we have a weird mix of players and execs to watch intently for any interesting emotions or internet memes. Isaiah Thomas, Jimmy Butler, Karl Towns, Devin Booker and Willie Cauley-Stein are all going to be on hand. The Sixers are letting Brett Brown attend—whether that’s a real reward or annoyance is in the eye of the beholder. Masai Ujiri has been known for an interesting quote here and there. We can all remind ourselves of how bald Jason Kidd is. Who is the luckiest guy in the room? What will they wear? Does any of this actually matter? Is there a conspiracy in the works?

We’ll find out.