NBA Finals Contender Rankings After the Trade Deadline: Nuggets Might Have a Challenger
Aside from the stray buyout option or two that we will have to pretend to be excited about, the dust has mostly settled in the NBA after last Thursday’s trade deadline. The rosters we see now will largely be the rosters we see come playoff time. So with most of the league’s wheeling and dealing out of the way, let’s take stock of the title race with a ranking of the teams most likely to win the NBA Finals if the postseason started tomorrow.
Previous contenders who are off the board: Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat
Memphis is having a season so cursed even Stanley Yelnats would blush. The Heat made the Finals last year as an eight seed via the play-in and appear to be headed toward that path for a second season in a row. I don’t love that bet.
TBD: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers can’t be judged until we know what’s going to happen with Joel Embiid. Is he done for the season? Will he return for the playoffs? What level of effectiveness will he have when he returns? Philly would undoubtedly be very high on this list if the Embiid we’ve seen for most of this season was still playing.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
The absolute fringiest of fringe contenders.
Lakers forward LeBron James moves the ball against New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram during the second half at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Feb. 9, 2024.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
I am part of the problem. I believe the Cavs deserve way more respect for what they’ve accomplished this season, and here I am disrespecting them. Donovan Mitchell is putting up MVP numbers, Jarrett Allen is playing at an All-Star level and this team is second in the East despite sustaining significant injuries to both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. Cleveland, I hope you see this ranking and are disgusted with me. Let this fuel you. The mainstream media still won’t recognize how great your season has been. Make me look like an idiot for not fully trusting this team.
9. New York Knicks
The Knicks get the edge over the Cavs for me because of their most recent playoff matchup—which didn’t feel close—and because of the upgrades New York has made since. O.G. Anunoby has turned into the league’s plus-minus darling with the Knicks, and though hurt right now, he should be back in plenty of time for the playoffs. Bojan Bogdanović adds great depth and scoring on the wing. And Jalen Brunson is that dude. This is a deep and flexible roster.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are great, but the complete lack of shared playoff experience for this group means I can’t have them any higher on this list. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, but he hasn’t been in the postseason since 2020 when he was Chris Paul’s apprentice. As impressive as SGA, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have been as a trio, I think they still need some character-building playoff moments.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves, on the other hand, have built some character over the last couple of years. The defense is undoubtedly championship caliber. And Anthony Edwards can go toe-to-toe with anyone. At the same time, the every-now-and-then fourth-quarter struggles have been a little troubling. And somewhere deep in the very back of my mind is a seed of concern about how the frontcourt will fare in the highest leverage moments.
5. Golden State Warriors
I can’t quit them. Steve Kerr is now starting Draymond Green at center and it has unlocked this team. The defense is playing lights out. Green is playing with ferocious energy on both ends. Jonathan Kuminga is blossoming and attacking the rim like Prime LeBron. Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson seem to be settling into new roles. Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry. Their overwhelming playoff success as a group will always make me have a soft spot for them. Is this a legacy pick and is my reasoning for them maybe a little inconsistent with the rest of this list? Sure, and I don’t care how mad it makes you.
5. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix has a 12.5 net rating when Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal share the floor. The longer they play together, the better they look. And the role players—especially Grayson Allen—have been very solid. Ultimately, KD and Book are too talented to be dismissed. No team took more games off the Denver Nuggets in a series last season than Phoenix.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
As disappointing as it has looked at times, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, a high-powered offense and a coach with a ton of playoff experience. Antetokounmpo is still putting up MVP numbers and trying to slow down him and Damian Lillard in clutch moments has proven to be very difficult. I am willing to bet the longer they play together, the better they will be. And the championship equity this team built with their 2021 run goes a long way with me.
3. Boston Celtics
I would be shocked if Boston does not make it out of the East. The Celtics’ starting five is a nightmare for opponents on both ends of the floor. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Kristaps Porziņģis would be the three best players in many starting lineups. In Boston, they are the three worst. I have the Celts as Jabba the Hutt-heavy favorites to be in the Finals. The issue is who would await them.
2. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokić is going to win his third MVP unless he gets bored and decides not to. The starting five is still a well-oiled machine. And nobody I’ve spoken to since last June has offered a good answer for how to slow down the Joker–Jamal Murray two-man game. It is going to take a Herculean effort to knock this team out of a playoff series.
Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard moves the ball against Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels during the second half at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Feb. 12, 2024.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
1. Los Angeles Clippers
I’m sold on them. Kawhi Leonard looks like the Best Player Alive again. Their depth gives them a ton of flexibility. Ty Lue is a proven big-game coach. James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Paul George have bought into and are excelling in their roles. Is health a factor? Certainly! It’s a factor for every team. More importantly to me, since moving Westbrook to the bench in late November, the Clippers are 32–10, tied for the most wins in the league with the best offense in that time. Other teams may have posted similar or nearly as good numbers, but none of them have the wealth of experience the Clips do. Or Kawhi.
