How NBA's Anti-Tanking Reforms Could Help the Sixers

The NBA's crusade against tanking took another step forward last week.

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the league presented "three comprehensive anti-tanking concepts to its board of governors" on Wednesday, although modifications are "expected to each before a formal vote in May." All three would expand the lottery to include at least all of the teams in the play-in tournament, but they wildly diverge from there. (One would even include the eight teams that lost in the first round of the playoffs!)

If the league does go ahead with expanding the lottery field and changing the odds of the worst teams landing high picks, the Sixers could be one of the earliest beneficiaries.

How could lottery reform help the Sixers?

As long as the Sixers don't land a top-four pick this year, they'll be sending their first-rounder to the Oklahoma City Thunder. (Consider it Al Horford's parting gift to Philadelphia.) They'd also then owe their 2028 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets if it lands outside of the top eight.

The good news is that the Sixers also own the Los Angeles Clippers' fully unprotected 2028 first-round pick. They have the right to swap first-rounders with the Clippers in 2029 as well so long as the Clippers' pick doesn't land in the top three.

The proposed lottery reforms could be good news for both their own pick and the Clippers' picks.

Take the NBA's second proposal, for instance. Twenty-two teams would be in the lottery—the 14 that missed the postseason and the eight that lost in the first round—and they would be weighted on their two-year record. If the Sixers lost in the first round this year, their miserable 2024-25 season would help improve their lottery odds in this system.

That model would also implement a win floor to dissuade tanking. Any team that finished below that floor would automatically move to it when calculating its two-year win-loss average.

There's no guarantee that system would come to pass, but it would widen the Sixers' range of potential draft outcomes in 2028 if it did. Being eligible to jump into the top four even if they made the playoffs would at least slightly increase the probability that they keep their pick rather than send it to the Nets.

The same goes for those Clippers picks.

What's in store for Kawhi Leonard?

Regardless of what happens with Kawhi Leonard in the ongoing Aspiration investigation, the Clippers don't ever appear inclined to embrace a full-scale rebuild under team governor Steve Ballmer. He already shipped out James Harden for Darius Garland and Ivica Zubac for Bennedict Mathurin and two first-round picks in an attempt to get younger and retool on the fly.

Leonard's future is the big question mark from here.

Even if the NBA doesn't void his contract, he's heading into the final year of his deal in 2026-27. The Clippers have held serve since the trade deadline, but that's been fueled largely by his greatness. Given the Clippers' trajectory, he'd have better chances to win a championship elsewhere next year.

Since Leonard could be only a one-year rental, the Clippers might not get a massive haul in return from him. Still, trading him for anything would be better than the NBA voiding his contract and leaving his dead-cap hit on the books as a punishment for allegedly circumventing the salary cap.

Either way, the Clippers might not be back in the title conversation by 2028. If they're instead in the middle tier of the NBA—similar to where they are now—some of these lottery proposals could increase their chances of moving up in the draft, too.

In 2028, the Clippers owe their fully unprotected first-round pick to the Sixers. No matter where it lands—yes, even at No. 1—it's heading to Philly. In 2029, the Sixers can swap picks as long as the Clippers' pick isn't in the top three.

These anti-tanking proposals could increase both the Sixers and Clippers' chances of landing primo picks in 2028 even if they make the play-in tournament and/or the playoffs. The other two only included the 10 teams that miss the postseason entirely and the eight that make the play-in, but the Clippers are in there this year and the Sixers are fighting for their lives to stay out of it.

It's impossible to predict where either team will be in two years, but it's hard to imagine either one being legitimate championship contenders. Anything that increases their probability in the draft lottery under certain circumstances would be a welcome change, particularly ahead of a potentially pivotal 2028 draft for the Sixers.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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