How Paul George's Suspension Could Change the Sixers' Trade Deadline Strategy

With just six days to go until the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline, the Sixers were dealt a massive blow Saturday. The NBA announced that Paul George would be suspended for 25 games due to a violation of the league's anti-drug policy.

If anything, this suspension underscores why the Sixers typically wait to make moves until right before the trade deadline. Had they already taken a major swing not involving George, they might already regret it. Luckily, the constant uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid's health incentivizes them to wait until the last few days before they start swinging deals.

George's suspension will inevitably cause the Sixers to rethink how they intend to approach the trade deadline. George won't play again until late March, which leaves them even thinner on the wing for the next two months than they already were. On the bright side for the Sixers' ownership group, it's now far easier for them to escape from luxury-tax territory.

Let's walk through the major implications of George's suspension when it comes to the Sixers' trade-deadline strategy.

The Sixers can now duck the luxury tax with ease

Earlier this week, we wrote about how the Sixers didn't have any easy way to get under the $187.9 million luxury-tax line this season. George had other ideas.

George will lose roughly $11.7 million (20/110ths of his season-long salary) due to this suspension. The Sixers get to deduct half of that, or roughly $5.9 million, from their total luxury-tax salaries. That brings them from around $7.1 million above the tax line to less than $1.3 million above it.

The Sixers can now get below the tax line just by salary-dumping Eric Gordon ($2.3 million). However, they also need to account for how much it'll cost them to eventually convert Jabari Walker and Dominick Barlow from two-way deals to standard contracts. They'll likely need to finish at least $1.425 million below the tax line to give themselves enough breathing room in that regard.

They also need to account for the roster hijinks they may need to pull off in the next two months during George's suspension. They're allowed to move him to their suspended list after five games and sign a 16th player to a standard contract in his absence, but that would only cost them more.

The Sixers will assuredly budget at the trade deadline with those figures in mind, but they now just gained $5.9 million of unexpected breathing room. That could spare them from having to salary-dump Quentin Grimes or Kelly Oubre Jr. just to get under the tax.

Joel Embiid recently pleaded with the Sixers' owners to eschew ducking the tax and "think about improving because we got a chance." George's suspension creates one obvious void that they could stand to improve between now and Thursday.

The Sixers need more wing help

The good news is that even prior to his suspension, George had already missed 20 games this season. The Sixers have plenty of experience playing without him. And with all due respect, George's upcoming absence is not a loss akin to prime LeBron James or Nikola Jokić.

George had a turn-back-the-clocks outing on former head coach Doc Rivers and the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday, torching them for 32 points (including a franchise-high-tying nine made threes), five rebounds and five assists in only 33 minutes. But on the season, he's averaging only 16.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Those numbers are positively Tobias Harris-esque.

George is far more impactful than Harris was on defense, which is where he's priding himself on leading these days. He knows he's taking a back seat to Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid on offense, and he's here to fill the gaps as their third banana.

George is no longer his MVP self, but he's still a plus starter in the league. Without him, the Sixers are now down to only Kelly Oubre Jr. and Justin Edwards at small forward. They're also now down their best perimeter defender.

Head coach Nick Nurse has leaned into guard-heavy lineups this year, but the Sixers' depth at forward—specifically on the wing—is about to get tested. Additional wing help was already high on their priority list at the trade deadline, but George's suspension might have just vaulted it to the front of the list.

Will the Sixers now be less aggressive?

On the day George's suspension got announced, the Sixers won their third straight game, led by Embiid's season-high 40 points. While George's suspension takes the wind out of the Sixers' sails, Embiid's recent play has been head-turning.

Over his past 15 games, Embiid has averaged 30.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 52.4 percent overall and 34.0 percent from deep. He isn't quite his former MVP-caliber self, but Zach Lowe of The Ringer recently called him "the best story in the NBA."

As the Sixers have become all too aware over the years, Embiid's upside is tantalizing, but it can all come crashing down with one wrong step. If Embiid ever made it through a playoff run healthy, he might be able to carry them to their first conference finals appearance in more than two decades. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy to date.

"I had kinda given up on this. I still don't have any faith that it can survive three straight playoffs series, and if he can't, they can't make the Finals," Lowe said on his podcast. "But every week, two weeks that goes by with him playing pretty much every game at a heavy minutes load, my lack of faith in that gets chipped away at a little bit. And it's awesome. It's one of the best stories in the NBA."

Do the Sixers feel the same way? Or will George's suspension push them toward selling or standing pat at the trade deadline rather than buying?

Their road back-to-back against the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors on Monday and Tuesday will be their two final data points before they reach decision time. Embiid figures to miss one of those two games, which means the Sixers will be down at least two members of their Big Three that night.

If the Sixers beat the Clippers or Warriors without Embiid and George, that might push them over the edge into buyer territory. But if they struggle Monday and Tuesday, they might rethink whether to sink additional assets into a team that figures to be hovering around play-in tournament territory for the next two months.

Even prior to George's suspension, it was already unclear whether the Sixers planned to be buyers, sellers and/or tax-dumpers at the trade deadline this year. The tax dump is a virtual lock, but their buyer/seller outlooks remains murky at best.

George's suspension did not help in that regard.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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