The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Is Terrible News for the Sixers

As if getting blown out at home in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals amidst a veritable ocean of New York Knicks fans wasn't bad enough for the Sixers on Sunday, the 2026 NBA draft lottery added insult to injury.

The Sixers weren't directly impacted by the results of the lottery. They already owed their own first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 17 overall), and they're set to receive the No. 22 pick (via the Houston Rockets) thanks to the Jared McCain trade. But they did have reason to root against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Clippers entered the lottery with roughly a 48% chance of landing either the No. 5 or No. 6 overall pick courtesy of the Indiana Pacers. Had the Pacers landed in the top four, the Clippers would have gotten their 2031 first-round pick instead.

Naturally, the Clippers landed the No. 5 overall pick. That's potentially bad news for the Sixers' long-term future.

The long tail of the Harden trade

When the Sixers traded James Harden to the Clippers in the fall of 2023, they got back a fully unprotected 2028 first-round pick as well as the right to swap picks with the Clippers in 2029 as long as the Clippers land outside of the top three that year. For the next few years, the Sixers should be actively rooting for the Clippers to implode.

The Clippers seemingly began that process at the trade deadline when they shipped James Harden to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Darius Garland and dealt Ivica Zubac to the Pacers in a unique trade.

The Pacers gave up a conditional 2026 first-round pick along with a fully unprotected 2029 first-rounder, a 2028 second-rounder, Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson for Zubac. The 2026 first-rounder would only convey if it fell between Nos. 5-9; otherwise, the Pacers would send their unprotected 2031 first-round pick to the Clippers instead.

In some sense, the Sixers were damned if they did, damned if they didn't at this year's lottery. Had the Pacers landed a top-four pick to pair with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac, they likely would be right back in the top tier of the Eastern Conference next season. Honestly, they might be anyway even without a top-four pick.

But now that the Clippers landed the No. 5 overall pick via the Pacers, their future seems far less bleak than it did prior to Sunday.

What are the Clippers picks worth now?

The Clippers do still have a lot to figure out, though. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer and Caleb Wilson figure to be the top four players off the board in this year's draft in some order. Beyond that, the next-best prospects are all guards, which means there may be some overlap with Garland.

Could the Clippers consider trading Garland—either this summer or in the future—if they go best-player-available and take a guard at No. 5? Or might they consider trading down to pick up additional assets and replenish their coffers if they're worried about how the top prospects available at No. 5 would mesh with Garland?

The bigger elephant in the room is Kawhi Leonard.

The NBA still has yet to release the results of its investigation into allegations of salary-cap circumvention first raised by now Pulitzer Prize-winning podcaster Pablo Torre. It's unclear what (if anything) the punishment might be, although it could range from stripping future draft picks to voiding Leonard's contract entirely.

If the NBA doesn't go that far, the Clippers could consider trading Leonard this offseason to more of a win-now contender. That would potentially allow them to expedite their rebuild and get their feet back on solid ground by 2028 or 2029, especially with the No. 5 pick in the fold.

If the NBA moves forward with its proposed draft-lottery reform and flattens each team's odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick, that will add an even wider range of outcomes to those Clippers picks in 2028 and 2029. They'd have a higher chance of landing the No. 1 pick if they wind up being a late lottery team, but they'd have a far lower chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick if they're one of the worst teams in the league in 2027-28 or 2028-29.

Between the results of the 2026 lottery and the NBA's looming lottery overhaul, the month of May might cause those Clippers to lose a ton of trade value.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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