The One Player the Sixers Can’t Afford to Lose This Offseason

Heading into the offseason, the Sixers have four players who are set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1. Two of them stand out as clear priorities over the other two.

Kyle Lowry figures to head into a TV gig or a coaching or front office position after this season instead of returning for his age-40 campaign. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond is a fine gap-filler whenever Joel Embiid is out during the regular season, but he's barbeque chicken in the playoffs.

That leaves Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes as the Sixers' top two internal free-agent priorities in some order. The order in which they prioritize those two will largely come down to price and their alternative options at each position.

But if the price is roughly even, Oubre stands out as the No. 1 priority over Grimes.

Oubre's hidden value

It's been rare to say this about a Sixers forward in recent years, but the Sixers have gotten their money's worth and then some with Oubre over the past few seasons.

The Sixers originally signed Oubre to a one-year, $2.9 million contract late in the 2023 offseason, then re-signed him to a two-year, $16.4 million deal with an $8.4 million player option in 2024. Oubre picked up that option last offseason, which suggests he didn't foresee getting a larger offer in free agency.

Since joining the Sixers, Oubre has averaged 14.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 threes, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks in 32.1 minutes per game over the past three seasons. He shot only 32.0% from deep over that span, but he shot 45.7% overall despite that middling three-point mark.

Opponents' strategy in the playoffs was to send extra defensive help at Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid while leaving Oubre and VJ Edgecombe open from deep. Edgecombe is certain to be back next season, so if Oubre hopes to return as well, both of them need to spend all offseason in the gym working on their long-range jumpers.

Every made basket takes on extra importance in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and players play far more physically than they do in the regular season. To that end, easy shot attempts are like manna from heaven.

While Oubre isn't a consistent three-point shooter, his instincts and athleticism do help him make an impact as a cutter, which was on full display throughout the playoffs.

When Embiid draws a double-team and Oubre's man is the extra help, Oubre doesn't just have to stand in the corner. He often attacks the basket in those situations, setting up an easy deuce if Embiid can thread the pass through the two defenders swarming him.

I'm trying to tell you the Sixers are just pulling levers at this point, the Celtics have to disrupt their rhythm. Maxey pushes nothing so it goes to Embiid in the post. Drives, waits for White to show help and finds Oubre cutting for a dunk. pic.twitter.com/L7AcjQt9d8
— Steve Jones (@stevejones20) May 2, 2026

Oubre has also been a slightly above-average defender since coming to Philly, per Dunks and Threes' estimated defensive plus/minus. Grimes has been a bit more hit-and-miss in that regard.

Teams start hunting weak defenders in the playoffs, so an above-average defender should be the bare minimum that the Sixers look to spend their money on this offseason.

The Bird Rights trap

The issue with both Oubre and Grimes is that if either one of them leave, the Sixers might not have a realistic avenue with which to replace them via free agency.

The Sixers already have nearly $172.5 million in guaranteed money on their books for next season, and that's not counting the team options they have on Dominick Barlow, Trendon Watford or Dalen Terry. Whether they retain those guys and/or sign other players to minimum contracts to replace them in free agency, that alone will add another $12-15 million to their books.

That will leave the Sixers less than $15 million below the tax, $23 million below the first apron and $36 million below the second apron before they re-sign either Oubre or Grimes.

If the Sixers use the $15.0 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, they'd be hard-capped at the first apron. The math already isn't mathing there if they hope to retain both Oubre and Grimes.

If they use the $6.1 million taxpayer MLE, they'd be hard-capped at the second apron.

Unless the free-agent market is more barren than expected for both Oubre and Grimes, the Sixers might have to choose between re-signing both of them or maintaining access to the taxpayer MLE. Even if one of Oubre or Grimes walks, the Sixers likely won't have the full non-taxpayer MLE to spend on their replacements.

That puts the Sixers in what John Hollinger of The Athletic refers to as the "Bird rights trap" with both Oubre and Grimes.

"For any player worth the mid-level exception or more, the team is in a really tight spot," Hollinger wrote back in 2020. "First, if the player leaves, it can’t come up with a replacement of equal value. Second, even if it can come up with something of nearly equivalent value with the mid-level exception (MLE), you only get one of them … and you just forfeited your opportunity to use it on a player at another position. Use that MLE to plug the first hole and leaks pop up elsewhere."

The Sixers do have full Bird rights on both Oubre and Grimes, so they can offer either player anything up to a max contract despite being over the salary cap. Neither player will come close to an offer of that magnitude, but the Sixers can pay them well above market value if so desired.

The Sixers will have to be mindful of how new contracts for Oubre and/or Grimes fit into their larger picture, though. Even if they're willing to pay the luxury tax for the first time in five years, are they willing to cross into apron territory and deal with the accompanying roster-building restrictions?

That's the main reason why the Sixers figure to prioritize Oubre over Grimes in free agency. Unless they're willing to start a three-guard lineup next year, Grimes isn't going to overtake Maxey or Edgecombe in the starting lineup. But if Oubre leaves, they'll either need to find an inexpensive wing to replace him in the starting lineup or hope Justin Edwards can grow into that role.

The 2026 NBA draft could help determine which direction the Sixers go in. If they land a forward like Santa Clara's Allen Graves or Tennessee's Nate Ament with the No. 22 overall pick, perhaps they'll be more amenable to moving on from Oubre and will prioritize re-signing Grimes.

But guards tend to be more replaceable than forwards in free agency, particularly when teams go hunting in the bargain bin. It's rare to find a starting-caliber forward for less than $10 million, which is spending power that the Sixers aren't likely to have this offseason.

That should make Oubre their top priority to retain.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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